INC launches world nut forecast

International Nut & Dried Fruit (INC) has released its latest global statistical review with production trends for almonds, Brazil nuts, cashews, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, pecans, pine nuts, pistachios, walnuts, peanuts, dates, dried apricots, dried figs, prunes, raisins, sultanas and currants for 2016/17.

For the 2015/16 season, world tree nut production has been estimated at 3.80m tonnes, and the forecast for 2016/17 is that production will reach 4.02m tonnes, growth of 5.77 per cent.

The data refers to figures on a kernel basis, except for pistachios, which are on an in-shell basis.

Pistachios will experience the biggest increment this season, with the forecast pointing to a 34 per cent growth in production, up to 703,700 tonnes. The US is expected to be the world’s largest pistachio producer with 363,000 tonnes.

World peanut production, including the amount that is processed into peanut oil, has been forecast at 41.26m tonnes, up 1.83 per cent from the 2015/16 season crop of 40.52m tonnes (in-shell basis).

World production excluding crushing for oil is expected to account for approximately 24m tonnes. In 2016, China and India, the largest producers, have increased peanut acreage by 15 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.

The estimated world production of dried fruit in 2015/16 reached more than 2.7m tonnes. A 4.41 per cent production growth has been forecast for the 2016/17 season, reaching up to approximately 2.9m tonnes.

In relative terms, dried apricots and sweetened dried cranberries are expected to register the greatest growth (12 per cent each), being the US the world’s largest producer of both.

The top three producers of tree nuts and dried fruits are the US, Turkey and China. As California, the world’s leading almond producer, faced a fourth consecutive year of historic drought, the superior economics offered by almonds have attracted new plantings.

Likewise, California’s pistachio and walnut industries have witnessed increases in planted areas, and in the raisin category, despite the drought, most growers have managed successfully to use water resources more efficiently.

In China, which leads walnut production along with the US, crop forecasts are very promising for the coming years, given the introduction of premium high yielding varieties.

Turkey will be the number one producer of hazelnuts, dried apricots, dried figs and dried grapes in 2016/17. This season, the Turkish hazelnut crop has been forecast at 250,000 tonnes, plus a carry-over of 67,500 tonnes, for a total supply forecast of 317,500 tonnes – accounting for 70 per cent of world supply.