US imports of fresh produce are forecast to hold steady in fiscal 2009, according to a just-released report, titled the Outlook for US Agricultural Trade, from the USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service, indicating that the global economic downturn on consumer spending and demand in the fresh produce department has not been as severe as anticipated.
Overall in fiscal 2009, the USDA estimates fresh fruit imports into the US will increase in volume to 8.8m tonnes, in comparison to 8.67m tonnes in 2008, with value set to rise to US$6.1bn, against US$5.54bn in 2008.
Fresh vegetable imports into the US are projected to remain stable at 4.6m tonnes during the course of 2009, the USDA said, compared with 4.59m tonnes in 2008. Value, meanwhile, is expected to dip to US$4.36bn, down from US$4.44bn last year.
During the October to March period of 2009, fresh fruit imports into the US rose slightly to 4.44m tonnes, the USDA said, against 4.41m tonnes in the year-earlier period. Import value also increased to US$3.22bn, up from US$2.99bn during the October-March period of 2008.
Conversely, the USDA said fresh vegetable imports into the US slid to 2.66m tonnes during October to March 2009, down marginally from 2.68m tonnes during the same period last year. In value terms, vegetable imports also decreased to US$2.44bn, against US$2.57bn in the year-earlier period.
The overall value of agricultural imports into the US to date this year are down by 1 per cent, according to the US, following a 6 per cent hike in the first quarter and a 7 per cent decline in the second quarter, reflecting lower prices for many commodities and products.
However, the total value of agricultural imports in fiscal 2009 is estimated to rise by 2 per cent to US$81bn against 2008, on account of the 3 per cent hike in year-to-date import volume, which the USDA claims is an indicator that demand has not fallen.
Providing the 3 per cent volume expansion holds up for the whole year, the USDA estimates demand for agricultural imports in general is on course to increase by 2 per cent in adjusted terms, since the US population is expected to rise close to 1 per cent this year.
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