The South African Table Grape Industry (SATI) issued two possible forecasts for the 2011 season after rain caused significant damage to the crop during the past few weeks.
At worst, SATI predicted an export crop of about 46m cartons, while at best some 49m cartons would be exported.
Original estimates at the start of the season predicted a crop of between 51-55m cartons.
Losses in the northern region and the Orange River were significant, but estimates in the later regions have also been reduced.
“The crop estimate in the northern region will be at least 15 per cent lower than initially estimated due to the high rainfall this season, which caused delays in the harvesting of most varieties,” SATI said in a statement. The revised crop estimate for this region is now between 3.2–3.7m 4.5kg cartons.
In the Orange River the crop has been revised downwards to between 12.8-13.3m cartons, from a pre-season estimate of between 15.5-16m cartons.
“Rain on 30 December 2010 and 1 January 2011 caused significant split damage (30–40 per cent) to Thompson Seedless grapes that were ready for harvest, but grapes that were still a week or more away from harvest showed little to no damage,” said the statement. The organisation reported Thompson Seedless and small volumes of Sugrathirteen were being packed whilst small volumes of Red Globe would be packed from time-to-time up to Week 3.
Growers in the Orange River said the rain over the New Year’s period had wiped out a significant part of the crop in the late harvesting region closer to Upington. “While we are still packing, there will be an early end to the season,” said Piet du Plessis, Chairman of Orpa, the local growers’ association.
The estimates for the Oliphant’s River has been reduced by about 500,000 cartons, the Berg River by about 1m cartons and the Hex River Valley by about 800,000 cartons compared to the pre-season estimates.
The effect of the rain is clearly shown in comparative intake and shipping figures compared with last season. Up to week 48 the industry was well ahead of the 2010 shipments due to an early start to the season. However, at the end of week 52 both intake figures and shipping volumes lagged behind last season’s figures.
By the end of week 52 15.3m cartons had been packed compared to 17.8m in 2010, while at the end of the same week 11.4m cartons had been shipped, compared to the previous year’s figure of 14m cartons.
SATI said shipments on the container vessel Safmarine NOMAZWE in the first week of January would significantly reduce the difference between the volumes that were packed at the end of week 52, and those shipped.
SATI expected volumes from the Berg River and Hex River regions to increase significantly in the weeks ahead.
For the growers in the Northern and Orange River regions the effect of the rain was a damaging blow. The Orange River could export almost 3m cartons less than originally estimated and growers predicted a rather gloomy 2011.
As if the rain has not been enough, the Mighty Orange River is also in flood after a deluge in the north of the country. During last week sluice gates at all the major dams in the Vaal and Orange Rivers were opened and growers along the rivers had been warned about possible flood damage. The Vaal River joins the Orange River near Douglas and floodwaters from both rivers flowed into the sea at Alexander Bay on the west coast of South Africa.
Floodwaters were expected to reach a peak in the Lower Orange River during the coming week, but the expected level of 7.5 meters is still some way off the worst flood of 9.5 meters, which the region had to deal with more than 20 years ago.
“The floods still represents a significant risk for the farming communities close to the river,” said Mr Du Plessis.
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