Apple crop back up in eastern Europe

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Jacques Dasque Prognosfruit

A recovery in apple production in the countries of eastern Europe is set to contribute to a 14 per cent rise in overall volumes to 9.98m tonnes this season across the 20 EU countries submitting forecasts to the annual Prognosfruit conference, held this year in Ashford, UK.

While output across the old member states is estimated to be down 7 per cent to 6.67m tonnes compared with the previous year, a forecast 104 per cent annual increase in new member state apple volumes to 3.3m tonnes this year looks to have ruled out the kind of excellent sales opportunities for the old EU-15 seen during the past 12 months in the markets of central and eastern Europe.

'Last year was the most successful for the EU-15 in years, but it's hard to say when such market conditions will be seen again,' commented Helwig Schwartau of market analyst ZMP, who presented reviews of last year's apple and pear campaigns at Prognosfruit 2008 as well as previewing this season's quality and marketing issues.

With apple stocks in European storage at the beginning of June reckoned to be 7 per cent lower this year at 446,125 tonnes – Gala and Braeburn stocks are down 89 per cent and 43 per cent respectively at 455 tonnes and 3,411 tonnes respectively – and imports from third countries during 2008 down 14 per cent to 709,600 tonnes, the European market appears to be clearing well, although many of the major supplier countries in western Europe are looking at delays to the start of their harvesting campaigns of around 7-10 days.

According to the figures unveiled at the event by Philippe Binard of the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), apple volumes are expected to rise compared with the previous year by 115 per cent to 2.36m tonnes in Poland, by 159 per cent to 525,000 tonnes in Hungary, and by 27 per cent to 144,000 tonnes in the Czech Republic.

Other notable apple production forecasts among eastern European counties include a 340 per cent jump to 44,000 tonnes in Slovakia and a 113 per cent rise to 85,000 tonnes in Lithuania.

But in the EU's old member states, production looks set to fall significantly. In Italy, the continent's largest supplier, the forecast pegs apple production down 7 per cent year-on-year at 1.99m tonnes, while in France the anticipated volume of 1.52m tonnes represents a 9 per cent downturn on the figure for 2007/08.

Apple production is also forecast to fall in Austria (down 18 per cent to 154,000 tonnes), Germany (-12 per cent to 945,000 tonnes), Belgium (-13 per cent to 311,000 tonnes) and the Netherlands (-3 per cent to 385,000 tonnes).

Of the countries of western Europe, only Spain is predicted to show an upturn in apple volumes, up 7 per cent to 643,000 tonnes.

According to Mr Schwartau, Dutch apple exporters will be eyeing up strong marketing opportunities in Germany this season, after forecasting a downturn in production of just 3 per cent to 385,000 tonnes.

With an expected Jonagold crop of 125,000 tonnes and Elstar volumes stable at 170,000 tonnes, a number of Dutch suppliers will have a chance to export a greater quantity to the German market, where production of the varieties is forecast to fall by 16 per cent to 140,000 tonnes and by 24 per cent to 165,000 tonnes.

In the UK, meanwhile, increases in Gala and Braeburn production as a result of new plantings coming online are likely to help English apple marketers continue their recent expansion of local produce promotions.

Braeburn volumes are forecast to reach 9,000 tonnes in 2008, up 11 per cent compared with last year's figure, while Gala production is set to rise 16 per cent year-on-year to 31,000 tonnes.

Potential for more in Poland

Poland's apple crop could be as high as 2.5m tonnes this season – even higher than the 2.36m tonnes predicted at this year's Prognosfruit – if improved weather during July has the expected impact on the country's production.

According to Mr Schwartau, the forecast of a 115 per cent annual rise in production to 2.36m tonnes this season could well turn out to be too low. 'Following a great blossom, Poland then experienced a period of cold weather in mid-June which led to a certain amount of uncertainty,' he said. 'But conditions approved in July, so production could actually rise to around 2.45m-2.5m tonnes.'

Mr Schwartau also revealed that the total area of 'well-tended' apple production in Poland had now reached 50,000ha, compared with around 40,000-42,000ha of comparable production area in Italy.

According to this year's Prognosfruit forecast, Poland's Jonagold volumes are set to recover this season, rising 600 per cent year-on-year to 140,000 tonnes. Idared volumes are also predicted to spring back in 2008/09, from 100,000 tonnes in 2007 to some 400,000 tonnes this time around.

Poland's forecast apple production of 2.36m tonnes represents a 28 per cent increase in production compared with the average figure for 2005-2007.