The first South African avocados of the season are arriving in Europe this week amid reports that the country's crop will be well down on last year.
Industry sources have said that a smaller crop would be a blessing in disguise, given the forecast of steep rises in avocado exports from Peru and Chile which will provide strong competition, as well as the effects that the economic slow-down could have on sales this season.
The initial avocado forecast had put the 2009 crop at around 10mcartons. 'The start of the season has been somewhat difficult due toconsistent rain in the Tzaneen region and this has slowed down theearly shipments of Fuerte, but we expect harvesting and packing tospeed up from now on,' said outgoing South African Avocado Growers' Association (SAAGA) chairman Don Westcott, adding that most of hisgroup's (Tabernelli Exports) shipments will head to France.
South Africa exported nearly 13m cartons of avocados last year during what was described as a 'very special' season, with excellent returns for farmers. 'Except for a short period during the second half of the season, we did extremely well,' said Mr Wescott.
Piet Muller, the new SAAGA Chairman and a well-known grower from Levubu in the northern region of South Africa, said of the current season: 'We started harvesting some four weeks ago and sales in the South African market are already well under way.' He added that the Levubu region has not had as much rain as the other growing regions, and subsequently its crop has been affected by very hot weather during the setting period.
Exporters will keep a close watch on the Peruvian and Chilean crops this season, with Peru's Hass crop expected to increase from 10m to 12m cartons, putting additional pressure on the UK and European markets during late April and May. Chile is also expecting a big crop which will affect the second half of the season.
Mr Muller said that it remained a challenge to manage the marketing season successfully in the light of the rapid production expansion in Peru. 'We need to manage our crop well and continue with the market development programme which has been so successful over the past ten years,' he explained.
Derek Donkin, CEO of SAAGA, said that there is good communication between South Africa and Peru and although the total offer will be higher during certain sales weeks, he believes volumes will be manageable. 'The fact that our crop is smaller will to a great extend balance out the expected Peruvian increase in volumes.'
Peru is currently in the final stages of attaining access to the United States, and should this happen before the end of their season, it may well relieve the situation in Europe.
Meanwhile, Mr Westcott said there are indications that cash-strapped consumers who shy away from luxury purchases are still prepared to spend money on fruit and vegetables. 'The economic situation is definitely worrying for the industry, but we are confident that consumers will still find value in our products,' he said.
It is expected that more fruit will also be offered to the South African market this year where demand has been slowly growing during the past few years. Avocados have become available all year round in South Africa and this has contributed to increased demand from consumers.
The first South African Hass avocadoes are expected to be packed and shipped in mid April.
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