The report suggests there will be substantial declines for Argentina, and Australia and Chile are also forecast to show a decrease which will partially offset gains by other major sources.

According to the monthly report, total exports for fresh apples are likely to be down two per cent on the 2001 season. Brazil and New Zealand are the only exceptions to the rule with forecast increases in exports of 109 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

The report also forecasts 'bizarre pricing' if temporary gluts of supplies appear on markets this season. While South Africa's crop is broadly in line with last year, it should benefit from a depreciation in value of the rand making it more competitive on export markets. Chile has also experienced a softening in the value of its currency as has Brazil which has a substantially larger crop: 757,000tonnes compared to 630,750t last season.

The first year of deregulated marketing in New Zealand also makes forecasting effects on sales difficult. And because of 'institutional changes' in supply countries the report states, data may be 'subject to more errors than was common in the past'.

The overall picture, however is for a 'comfortable' season given lower stocks of northern hemisphere apples at this point in the marketing year compared to 2001. 'However, further volatility in currency values or further economic setbacks in Latin America could unsettle markets temporarily,' warns the report.

Meanwhile, the pear forecast for the top six producers in the southern hemisphere is for a nine per cent decline on last year's production figure. This is due to fall in volume from 610,000t in 2001 to a forecast 525,000t for 2002 in Argentina, the largest pear grower in the southern hemisphere. The other major sources: Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa are expecting to post only slight changes in volumes.

But because of a weaker currency picture in general, pear exports should look more competitive in northern hemisphere markets leading to a forecast of just a three per cent decline in sendings. As with apples however, the effects of depreciated and devalued currencies could mean problems with dumping which might disrupt trade.

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