The figures come from this month's Prognosfruit conference in Trento Italy which revealed the forecast s alongside predictions for a reduced EU apple crop.

The countries covered by the survey are Turkey, Switzerland, Slovenia, Yugoslavia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Croatia.

The total crop this season is forecast to reach 5.3 million tonnes compared to 6.05mt last season. Turkey is the largest producer of the 10 countries with a forecast 2.3mt crop just six per cent down on last season. The largest variety is Starking Delicious with 1.3mt forecast followed by 805mt of Golden Delicious.

Poland is the second largest supplier among the countries immediately to the east of the EU. It has forecast a 2mt crop this season with Idared dominating the portfolio of varieties. Nevertheless production of this cultivar is some 40 per cent down on last season's exceptionally high-volume harvest and 20 per cent below the five-year average. Other leading varieties are Lobo, Jonagold, McIntosh and Golden Delicious. The latter is expanding in production from just 21,000t in 1995 to 120,000t this season.

The largest percentage decline in production this season is expected in Yugoslavia. Inclement weather , particularly in Serbia, is mainly responsible for the drop. Late frosts in early April after a mild winter in February and March decimated stone fruit and table grape crops at a crucial stage in their development and the effects on apple and pear production appear to have been no less severe. The crop will only be 57 per cent of last year's volumes, a forecast 38,000t, some 58 per cent down on the five-year average. The main varieties are Idared and Golden Delicious. Gala production is also leaping ahead, and although volumes this season are expected to be in line with 2001 at 100,000t, it still represents a 246 per cent increase on the five-year average.

Hungary is a significant producer of Jonathan, although this season volumes of the variety are expected to show a 40 per cent decline on last. Red Delicious is showing an improvement on 2001 as trees recover to produce an increased crop of 53,000t compared to 30,000t last year. And Golden Delicious production is in expansion – by 316 per cent on 2001 as volumes have leapt up dramatically from 17,000t in 1999.

Discounting the huge Starking production in Turkey, Golden Delicious is the leading cultivar in the 10 countries accounting for 1.1mt of the total crop: a staggering 48 per cent increase on the five-year average.