According to the British Potato Council (BPC) a warm and wet summer means that tuber numbers in many crops are not high and so there is a big proportion of large-sized tubers. It is likely this will increase yields by between one and two tonnes a hectare compared to last season's figure.

However, weather conditions have not been uniform across the UK and so the picture is varied. Many growing areas in Scotland have fared worse than those south of the border, and some suppliers in the eastern counties of England have experienced damage to crops as the result of heavy rainfall and hailstorms.

The latest planted area estimates from the BPC are for a four per cent decline on last year to 140,475ha. A difficult market is the main reason for the decline, which has been steady over the past few years as the number of producers decreases.

Another factor is the risk involved in growing speculatively. Where growers cannot produce good enough quality for processing contracts or supermarket programmes, they are leaving the business. The result is fewer, large growers involved in the supply chain.

Planting in the UK was a month earlier than last spring's late start and about two weeks ahead of the average. Seed went into the soil under good conditions, which have continued with warm temperatures and rainfall throughout the summer.

Second earlies are being lifted this month with ware expected to start going into storage in September, depending on soil temperatures and weather conditions.

The potato supply situation in the UK may also feel the knock-on effects of heavy rainfall in central and eastern Europe. The BPC has already received reports that crops in eastern Germany and the Netherlands have been affected but it is too early yet to quantify or to estimate the precise impact on the UK market.

In general however, across continental Europe, planted area is similar to, or higher than, last year. Yields could be higher for the same reasons that they are forecast to be in the UK – given the slightly lower number of tubers and their expected increased size.

This phenomenon is already putting pressure on pricing on the continent, where the focus in largely on potatoes for processing rather than for the fresh market.

Supplies at this stage are mainly of Premier and other early processing varieties. Producers with increased volumes may be anxious that they will not have enough room to store all their crop. They have been marketing it to processors early on, despite the poor market.

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