Scientists at the University of Columbia in New York confer that the conditions in the South Pacific indicate an El Niño return. The biggest problem is that its return could aggravate drought and famine in southern Africa where 20million people are already starving.

The effects in Latin America are likely to be most felt in Central America, the coast of Peru and Ecuador and north-eastern Brazil.

Fresh produce export crops that could be affected are mangoes and melons and bananas from Ecuador.

The southern states of the US are also expected to see more rain this winter while the northern states may experience a milder winter.