The report published by US-based Belrose, suggests that with apple crops in the big three production regions of China, the EU and North America expected to be down by 10, six and three per cent respectively, early forecasts are therefore favourable for prices. Especially as conditions in eastern Europe, central Asia and Japan have reduced the crops in those regions. Global production could therefore fall by as much as five per cent on last year to below 57million tonnes and its lowest level since 1998.

Prices to producers should therefore be higher: four to six per cent higher on average across Europe and 10 per cent up in the US.

The picture will vary from variety to variety and the report warns 2002-03 could be a watershed year for newer varieties. 'As more and more newer varieties crowd grocery shelves, retailers will be increasingly attentive to see which varieties are able to stimulate excitement among shoppers,' states the report. 'That is, which varieties move rapidly off their shelves. The 2002-03 season could be make or break in terms of which newer varieties will win favour and which older varieties will lose shelf space.' The ones to watch in Europe are Gala, Braeburn and Fuji, production of each of which is expected to rise by nearly 10 per cent. As volumes steadily creep up, downward pressure on prices is likely. Whereas supplies of Golden Delicious are expected to be broadly in line with last year.

Topics