Chris Redfern Moneycorp

Chris Redfern

At the beginning of 2014, the Australian dollar rebounded from a four-year low against sterling and last week it did exactly the same thing, strengthening by six cents.

The New Zealand dollar did even better, picking up nearly seven cents. Both of them received a lift from investors' growing conviction that the European Central Bank will have no alternative but to embark on a programme of quantitative easing, printing money to buy bonds.

That expectation was cemented by news that consumer prices in Euroland fell by 0.2 per cent in the year to December and by 'leaked' reports that the ECB staff have presented the Governing Council with three alternative strategies, all of which are said to involve increasing the ECB balance sheet by €500 billion.

With the French and German finance ministers both keen to see the central bank get cracking with its stimulative action, it is increasingly possible that the Governing Council will pull the trigger at its next policy meeting in 10 days' time.

It was no surprise, then, that the euro was the week's worst-performing major currency and sterling was unlucky enough to get dragged down too, after being knocked back from a six-year high on the first trading day of January.

The UK economic data were not particularly damaging to the pound, but politicians chose the turn of the year to begin their campaigning for the general election which will take place in May. Investors were reminded that the vote could well deliver no overall parliamentary majority. That political risk is likely to keep them wary of the pound for another four months.

Sterling and the euro were not quite the weakest performers though. The Swedish krona took a hit after the Riksbank said it was considering negative interest rates and other non-conventional monetary measures to push up inflation.