Ed Griffiths

The Christmas trading period held plenty of goodies for the fresh produce sector, but as we move into 2019, we shouldn’t lose sight of some areas of caution.

Total produce grew by 2.8 per cent in the 12 weeks to 30 December 2018, with price increases accounting for 1.5 per cent of that growth and volume a more modest 0.8 per cent. At a time when promotions are particularly popular, increases through pricing are welcome, albeit not a stable basis for growth.

Fruit saw a more reserved growth rate of 1.7 per cent in the same time, but benefited from a much more sustainable driver: purchase frequency was the force for good in this instance, demonstrating that consumers are enjoying fruit more than ever.

Vegetables, however, relied on rising prices to facilitate growth, accounting for 2.8 percentage points of the category’s three per cent value increase. While still a positive for the industry in the short term, consumers should be expected to respond, making growth of this kind relatively unstable.

Several veg sectors profited from these price increases, including salads, root crops, potatoes, legumes and brassicas. This was likely to be caused by a mix of factors. Shallower discounts played a role, but it was the popularity of premium varieties – as people splashed out over Christmas – which led to shoppers choosing more expensive products. With customers starting to tighten their belts through January and February, retailers will need to find additional ways to ensure veg growth continues.

Over the festive period, only cauliflower was able to grow both value and volume. While some might not consider it a traditional Christmas dinner accompaniment, cauliflower proved it’s still a popular winter warmer in the final quarter of 2018. Perhaps surprisingly, potatoes, Brussels sprouts and parsnips all experienced decline and lower consumer engagement this year compared to last. This goes to show that even seasonal favourites can’t rest on their laurels and need to find new ways to connect with customers in the run up to Christmas.

Retailers should avoid relying on promotions to boost these products in the first half of 2019. Instead, marketing towards seasonal and affordable produce, showing how it can be used in warm stews and soups, will be the route to customers’ hearts and to sustainable growth this winter.