According to the ministry's senior policy analyst Chris Ward, frosts in the Hawkes' Bay area of the country are likely to reduce the apple crop by some 10 per cent nationally, not 20 per cent as forecast last month. Kiwifruit looks likely to suffer a five per cent crop reduction after similar inclement weather in the principal growing area of Bay of Plenty.
Although the forecasts are not as dismal as at first feared, for those individual growers affected by the spring frosts, the outlook is bleak. Ward told freshinfo that apple growers in particular do not have frost insurance policies to fall back on. And net trading profit is likely to be hard hit as all other orchard expenses, apart from some picking and packing costs, will remain as in a normal year, but with hugely reduced volumes for sale.
The situation is further coloured by a strengthening NZ dollar and low international prices on top of the cool, dry spring weather.
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