NZ hort outlook "tough"

The outlook for New Zealand horticulture in 2006 is bleak with kiwifruit one of the few products bucking the trend.

According to the annual Sonzaf report just published by NZ’s ministry of agriculture and forestry, 2005 was a difficult year across all farm sectors and 2006 is expected to be just as tough although kiwifruit is better placed to weather the storm than other lines, thanks in part to the strength of the Zespri brand.

Relatively smooth growth in total kiwifruit export earnings was interrupted in 2005 due to an appreciation in exchange rates, the report found.

And in the upcoming season, export volumes are forecast by the ministry to rise, with a slight fall back the season after that. The forecast is for a crop of some 340,000 tonnes and exports of 310,000t compared to 326,000t and 298,000t in the season just ended.

NZ Maf reports that although kiwifruit growers have received lower export prices over the last two years because of the kiwi dollar’s appreciation, they are more optimistic of future export price rises than their top-fruit-growing counterparts. “International prices for New Zealand kiwifruit have been maintained over the past two seasons due to strong market management by the main exporter,” found the report. “These are expected to increase as quality standards for NZ kiwifruit continue to rise, as incomes rise in importing countries and as the proportion of the gold variety in the total crop increases .”

Although the report warns that rising production from competitors may counteract these factors, it is full of praise for Zespri. “NZ’s Zespri branded kiwifruit has maintained solid international pricing in the face of over-supplied markets this season,” it found. “It is differentiated and well-promoted in international markets and backed by systems that ensure consistent quality and assurances to customers.”

FOB prices per tray are estimated at NZ$8.43 for the season just ended and NZ$7.35 in the coming season rising to NZ$7.77 the following year.