It’s widely acknowledged that careers in this industry are a great place to be. After all, whatever happens in the world, everyone needs food.
The world has a level of uncertainty right now that far surpasses anything I ever expected to feel. The Independent this weekend noted that had I placed a £10 bet on Leicester City, Brexit and Trump then I’d be £30 million better off today. With £30m I could buy a fairly small, unassuming superyacht, or perhaps a half-decent semi in Kensington. But I think there’s a much more fruitful theoretical option.
Let’s keep running with the £30m figure. Let’s say I want to invest it in a business that’s assured of demand, with future growth potential. That £30m would pay for two vast new production greenhouses, for example. Looking around at the world today, to invest more in British food production might look to be a wise person’s choice.
While Leicester City winning the Premier League is unlikely to have a significant impact on the UK’s food supply, Brexit and Trump will undoubtedly force changes. Recent history has reinforced that we must plan for all eventualities, no matter how unlikely they feel. The potential impact of Brexit has been well-documented, but our terms of trade with the European neighbours on which we rely to feed us will change. I’m worried about funding for innovation work – the horticultural industry works largely across borders, and the UK’s continuing participation in pan-European projects is undoubtedly at risk. For our domestic production, we must throw the kitchen sink at efforts to keep freedom of movement for the UK’s food industry. Without it there’s a very genuine concern about our ability to function, let alone to compete.
We could worry more with a look across the pond. Trump disputes the reality of climate change, and wants to dismantle the Paris Agreement, but at the same time he wants to increase food production. This could all prove difficult with such a hard line on immigration. According to a 2014 study from the American Farm Bureau Federation, an immigration policy that closed the border would be likely to impact the revenues of US farmers by some 30-40 per cent. Undocumented workers are a core part of the US industry. A significant shift in immigration policy would force a fundamental restructure of everything the USA grows and a huge increase in agricultural wages. The extent of the impact on the global food market could be huge.
No matter what happens, UK food is in growing demand, and I see genuine opportunity for UK horticulture in this. Consumers want reassurance of provenance and quality, and the current level of patriotism in the populace is an open door for us to raise the profile of what it is to grow food in Britain today.
Forget building walls, we need more glass, more orchards and more tunnels – but we need people to pack and service these crops too, and we need the next generation of problem solvers and opportunity generators to flow through into horticulture. We must expect the unexpected, be prepared to take risks and invest in innovation. UK food production is a safe bet for the future. I’ll stick my last tenner on that.
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