New report finds compounding threats to UK food security, with climate risk intensifying across established source countries and trade shifting towards regions facing even greater exposure
The UK is increasingly sourcing fresh produce imports from regions facing heightened climate risks, potentially increasing the vulnerability of its food supply, according to a new report from sustainability advisory firm Aethr Associates.
The report says that while climate pressures are intensifying in already established source regions, the UK’s changing import patterns could be transferring supply toward areas facing even greater exposure to water stress, flooding and extreme weather.
Fresh produce is among the least self-sufficient parts of the UK food system, with the country producing just 14 per cent of the fresh fruit and 56 per cent of the fresh vegetables it consumes
Imports, which are reliant on international supply chains increasingly exposed to climate-related disruption, now account for almost two-thirds of UK fresh produce supplies.
The report highlights increasing imports from regions in Africa and elsewhere that face significant climate-related production constraints.
According to the report, between 2019 and 2025, import volumes from Mediterranean Europe fell by 15 per cent, while those from temperate Western and Central Europe fell by 35 per cent.
Over the same period, imports increased by 117 per cent from Mediterranean North Africa, 45 per cent from arid North Africa and the Sahel, 35 per cent from Southern Africa and 39 per cent from Andean South America.
The report rated water stress risks as “very high” in Mediterranean North Africa and Southern Africa. Flood risk, meanwhile, was rated as “high” in Arid North Africa and Sahel and Mediterranean North Africa.
The report acknowledged that climate exposure varies between individual countries and production areas, but warned that the overall direction of sourcing could increase the UK’s vulnerability.
“The UK is not simply importing food. It is importing – and potentially concentrating – more climate exposure within its food supply,” it stated.
It added: “a sourcing decision that resolves an immediate supply gap could increase the longer-term vulnerability of the food system”.
It called for a more deliberate strategy to understand where climate exposure lies, invest where domestic production can be strengthened and build resilience into the imports that are still needed.
This would include assessing risk at crop level, protecting existing domestic production capacity and identifying crops where increased UK production could make a meaningful contribution to food security.
It also called for longer-term grower relationships, investment in locally appropriate adaption and sourcing strategies that draw on genuinely diverse climate-risk profiles.
While acknowledging that every imported product cannot be replaced with a British alternative, the report urged for greater balance between domestic production and imports.
“This is not about complete self-sufficiency,” the report said. “It is about growing more where the UK realistically can, while strengthening the imported supply it will continue to need.”
