Bryan Roberts of on-line retail intelligence firm M+M Planet Retail predicted that Tesco is geared to make a move on the US market, during his keynote presentation at the Eurofruit Congress, in Amsterdam.

'I think Tesco will be the next big player to crack the States,' he told 400 delegates at the Krasnapolsky Hotel. 'Their e-commerce relationship with Safeway Inc means they are already involved there and my bet is the move will come in the next five years. Canada could be another target, as could Australasia.' Sainsbury's, he added, is unlikely to be one of the big movers in the rationalising global retail market.

Only Tesco and Sainsbury's of the UK's leading food retailers are in the European top 10, while only Tesco, in eighth place, sneaks in to the top 10 in the world. Asda, by dint of being owned by Wal-Mart of course, can claim to being number one in the charts of the retail super-rich.

'Tesco's turnover is equivalent to the GDP of Morocco,' said Roberts, adding that the combined turnover of the world's top 10 amounted to the economy of Brazil.

Despite a growth of 60 per cent over the last five years, Tesco remains 85 per cent dependent on the UK for its turnover. Ahold can count 87 per cent of its money outside of its nominal base in Holland and Carrefour is split almost down the middle between domestic sales in France (49 per cent) and overseas business (51 per cent).

'There is a broader geographical spread of retailers,' said Roberts, 'but these figures show that the market has not globalised. The retailers will continue to get bigger and the ones to watch out for decent acquisitive growth are Ahold, Tesco and Wal-Mart,' he said.

'Mergers and acquisitions can turn around your business, but they can also bite you. If a busines ain't broke, don't fix it,' was his message to the expanding retailers. 'Adapt to local conditions and be the best at fresh.'

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