Prognosfruit 2003 was held in Cologne on August 8 and predictions were that this year's apple and pear production across Europe could be at its lowest level since 1997.
Production is likely to be down across most of western Europe. Belgium is expecting a fall in production of 21 per cent, Greece will see a decline of 18 per cent, Italy will witness a decrease of approximately six per cent and the French crop is expected to drop by two per cent. While the UK has experienced a heatwave this summer the conditions have not been as difficult as on the continent, and there is an estimated rise of seven per cent for UK production, putting growers and suppliers in buoyant mood.
Early indications of the first Discovery crop are showing encouraging signs. Adrian Barlow, chief executive of English Apples & Pears is full of beans as the new season begins. “Discovery is in the shops now, the heat is increasing the speed of maturity and I believe they will be sold out by the end of August,” he says. “Close attention needs to be given from the grower through to the retailer. The time between picking and eating needs to be much shorter ñ especially with Discovery.”
Mark Culley, managing director at OrchardWorld, is also positive at the start of a new campaign. “The hot weather is bringing the fruit on nicely. Discovery is about to start and then we will see the start of the red apples, with Windsor, Worcester and Spartan to follow,” he says.
The weather has played a large role as ever, and earlier in the year sunshine was not the issue causing concern. Culley explains: “We were extremely worried by frosts and potential hail damage, but we seem to have come through this unscathed.” Since the sunshine has arrived the possibility of scorching has raised concerns. “There is always the danger of scorching in the kind of conditions we have seen recently. This year, though, scorching has been of greater concern on the continent,” says Culley.
Barlow agrees that the high temperatures are a worry. He says: “We really don't want any more daytime temperatures of 100°C. It would be nice to have a little more rainfall but not too much, and as for night conditions we also need the temperatures to drop ñ so we can get some colour on the fruit.”
Dry conditions for major varieties when picking the fruit is vitally important, according to Barlow. He says: “It makes a big difference to the ease and speed of picking and can also have an impact on bruising. The sunny weather also reinforces sugar levels in the fruit.”
Empire World Trade managing director Dick Lowes says: “Good quality Royal Gala harvested at the optimum moment, will be a wanted variety that we will be focusing on, encouraging additional supplies from good growers,” he says.
Culley believes that Gala volumes may increase by 20 per cent, while Cox volumes may also rise by up to 15 per cent, although he feels it is a shame that the crop cannot be earlier to capitalise on the French market. “If Gala had been available a month earlier this year, it would have been fantastic for the UK market as the French are having major issues with their crop,” he says. “Although it does remain too early to tell with Gala how the crop in other European countries will be affected by the weather. The big advantage in the UK is that heat has not been as sustained as on the continent.”
Barlow is fully aware that competition in the field of Gala is particularly strong but feels this year the UK can put in a strong performance. “Our forecasts have predicted that there will be around 15,000 tonnes, but we are hopeful that the final figure will be around 17,000t,” he says. “UK growers can get a premium price for their crop but only for a limited time. For demand to be met French produce has to enter the market and around 300,000t of Gala will hit the UK.”
The first harvests of the major varieties rely heavily upon the weather and Barlow expects they could be a week or so early. “We could be seeing some Cox around week commencing September 8, but we will see a lot more around September 15,” he says. “We're hoping for a much larger harvest of Cox, we have estimated around 41,000t, which is 33 per cent up on 2002. This is still some way behind the 2001 figure but there has been a vast reduction in hectares. In 1998 there were 5,000 hectares for Cox and this figure has fallen to 3,000ha in 2003.”
The pear crop is likely to be significantly down this year from 30,000t to 25,000t but Barlow points out that quality is key. He says: “There is a good prospect for the conference crop to be of a high standard.”
Empire World Trade has invested heavily in recent times. Lowes explains: “We have made a direct investment in a new packing machine in an established packhouse in the Wisbech area. In this area we market Fruitlink's crop. Our efforts allow for flexibility and the ability to cater for variable demand.”
The new in-house packing activity gives the opportunity for growers from around the country to have their fruit packed. Lowes is delighted with the efforts. “This investment in the industry not only shows our commitment to the future but gives the opportunity to broaden our understanding on how best to support the growers' efforts while eliminating unnecessary costs in a hands-on practical manner,” he says.
There is an air of confidence in the Bramley industry, says Barlow. “There are no large stocks of southern hemisphere fruit and the weather conditions mean lower levels of fruit across Europe,” he says. “But unfortunately the Northern Ireland crop is undergoing a torrid time once again. Frost, coupled with cold and wet conditions in May saw the crop greatly reduced. There are a significant number of growers who have been forced to abandon their orchards. A decent crop is definitely required for next year,” he says.
The strengthening of the euro this year has buoyed the industry. “This time last year the pound was approximately 10 per cent stronger and this makes a massive difference,” says Culley. Barlow believes this is a key factor for growers. He adds: “When the euro was introduced to the market, one euro was equivalent to 55 pence. Over time this has been steadily rising and one euro now is worth around 71p, which makes a big difference.”
Barlow also feels that UK retailers are getting behind UK growers. He says: “Consumers want to buy English apples during the English season. This is an invaluable marketing tool for retailers and they have the opportunity to emblazon the Union Jack flag on UK produce.”
The work of the Bramley Campaign is also vital to raising the profile of the fruit. Lowes believes the work is invaluable. “The market will remain tight again this year but we are confident of meeting customer programmes supporting the Bramley Campaign by being innovative and targeting new consumers, driving additional sales building upon the success of the four-pack campaign which recently won the chairman's Brammy award for Tesco,” he says.
The Bramley Campaign is also urging young people to cook with Bramley to try and encourage a new generation of consumers. Barlow explains: “A competition recently took place with budding chefs using innovative recipes with Bramley apples. The campaign is also embarking on a comprehensive programme of getting the fruit into schools stressing the nutritional value,” he says. “If you can get young people interested in the products ñ they will stay interested and you will have a new generation of Bramley lovers.”
Culley believes that overall there are good reasons to be optimistic for 2003. “Yield-wise the crop will not be as big as 2001, but should be a good increase on 2002. The marketplace is shaping up well and the vital support from UK retailers is pleasing,” he says.
Lowes agrees that there is every reason to be positive. “Our belief in the future can be seen in our substantial investment, which was has been based around our customers commitment to the topfruit industry,” he says. “We will apply our company philosophy of delighting consumers while endeavouring to provide our growers with a bright future.”
Barlow concludes: “Early indications for Bramley show returns should be good. In fact, all dessert varieties should be good. The indications from the multiples is that it will receive the highest level of support we have seen for some years for English top fruit ñ there is great potential for the future.”
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