Fluctuating weather conditions have put pressure upon the Mexican grape market but the industry is prepared to rise to the challenges ahead.
John Pandol, of Pandol Brothers, believes that unexpected conditions in early 2004 could have raised potential barriers, but this has not proved disastrous. "The big thing this season was temperature. We had the coldest February in decades, followed by the hottest March for many years," he says. "The early fruit is late, although we were tracking 17 days behind last year we have made up 10, and the mid and late season vineyards are on time.
"Concerning the most important characteristics of berry size and colour, the weather in the few weeks before harvest largely determines that. It is too early to predict the season's later volumes, but so far so good."
Miguel Suarez, of MAS Melons and Grapes, believes the late start date should not cause too many problems. He says: "The first shipments are expected to arrive this week, and should be only a few days later than the normal average start date.”
The biggest challenge this season will be selling the grapes in marginally less time due to the later start. "An empty market which facilitates sky high prices, needs to come down quickly so we can move the volumes," says Pandol. "It is also necessary to move the volumes out before the central Californian and Mediterranean grapes begin. Managing our pricing in an orderly fashion and keeping very fresh grapes on the shelves is our goal."
Suarez also agrees that with the season not beginning as early as last year creates a smaller marketing window but there are also additional challenges. He says: "One pressure upon the industry and facing all grape growers is to ensure that consumption increases in line with increased growth in acreage planted."
Given the different supply situation in Chile, the Mexicans feel they can capitalise upon market opportunities. "Towards the end of the Chilean deal, white grapes will be pretty scarce and there will be light supplies of red grapes as well," says Suarez. "We also picture that the demand for Mexican white grapes will be especially high when the season starts. Customers will be looking for newer, fresher grapes."
He also feels that supplies in Europe may be even lower than in the US. Suarez adds: "It is a shorter distance for Chile to ship to the US than to Europe. As the Chilean deal ends, they might opt to send more product to the US."
Pandol sees the early part of the season crucial to the Mexican offer. He says: "The front end of the season will be hot. Fresh fruit will knock older southern hemisphere fruit off the supermarket shelves. The benefits of a favourable exchange rate will also give some of the more price sensitive markets a chance to see the reaction. Traders who in the past have rejected Sonora grapes as too expensive are willing to consider trying them. Hopefully these customers will continue long after the exchange rates swing the other way."
Pandol believes that the back end of the season will prove even more interesting. "Last year the Sonorans had a long window in Europe and the US because of the timing of the harvest in the Mediterranean countries and California," he says. The transition date changes from year-to-year and a big fear for the Sonoran grower is to have the Mediterranean sneak up and take the market."
Suarez says that there could be some increases in the varieties marketed this season. "Varieties will be similar to last year with Perlette, Flame, Sugraone and black seedless. But we may see increased volumes of Red Globe this season," he says. "There is also likely to be development in shipping and packaging this season. Year after year there are more specialised packs on the market. The trend for different pack styles continues. This includes clamshells and also bags with ziplock closings."
CAPESPAN’S ROLLERCOASTER GRAPE RIDE
THE GRAPE market has been on a rollercoaster ride this season, according to Capespan's procurement director Martin Dunnett.
"It has been a bit of a strange season to date this year," he says. "The market was undersupplied in January and Chile inherited a good market opportunity, but struggled to capitalise on the opportunities available. The grapes coming from Chile battled to get the right size and colour onto the market. There has not been long runs of high quality produce which does not breed confidence in retailers or consumers."
However, Dunnett feels that the marketplace is shaping up nicely for the months to come. "We are seeing some nice Indian fruit available and there is a great deal of good quality produce starting to come from Egypt," he says.
The Egyptian marketplace is seeing some impressive developments at the moment and Capespan is looking to double its volumes this year. "We took 70,000 cartons last year and this year we are expecting to increase to 150,000 cartons," says Dunnett. "The varieties we are taking are Sugraone, Thompson, Flame and Crimson. We are expecting big things from Egypt in the years to come. The grapes are being produced to EurepGAP standards and the packhouses I have visited have been some of the best I have seen."
Dunnett also feels that the fortunes of Israeli grapes will be much improved this season. "This year we will be looking to Israel for increased volumes. Last season was a difficult one for Israeli produce," he says. "But we feel that this year will present a bigger opportunity."
One area impressing Dunnett is the market growth for red seedless grapes. He says: "We are steadily increasing the volumes and consumers are becoming more and more interested in the product, the next six to eight weeks should be particularly good. There is growing confidence in red seedless and demand is rising steadily.
“In 2002, red and black seedless occupied 23.6 per cent of the market and in 2003 this increased to 26.9 per cent. We are expecting another increase in 2004 figures as the market continues to develop further."
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