Unless the food industry makes swift and significant changes to the way it markets food, within 10 years “the consumer will not be able to assume a given right to all attributes of cheap, safe, consistent-quality food produced to high environmental and welfare standards”.
That was the view of Sir Ben Gill, chairman of English Apples & Pears (EAP), speaking at last week’s Prognosfruit conference, which drew more than 200 delegates from the global top-fruit industry to Kent.
Apple and pear growers need to look at the wider picture and adapt to the changing world around them, ex-National Farmers’ Union president Sir Ben told delegates.
“People working in apples and pears correctly focus on growing their products, but as an industry we also need to understand the global context,” he said.
“There are considerable changes at global level. There is a so-called push towards liberalisation, although we have actually seen evidence of a return to bilateral trade deals. Some parts of the world that the US has alienated are pushing to move from trading in dollars to euros - how would that affect fruit trading?”
By 2050, predictions are that world food demand will double as a result of the increasing global population and wealthier lifestyles, meaning that in 40 years, the world would have to triple total food production on less cultivable land, Sir Ben told the floor. “By 2050, the prediction is that 50 per cent of the world’s arable land may be unusable due to over-irrigation and over-grazing,” he said.
Even though the world is close to peak oil production, demand for that commodity is expected to rise. “In the medium term, it is inevitable that energy prices will rise even higher, and the industry needs to think of the costs of that and the effect on its carbon footprint.”
Climate change is also a key challenge, Sir Ben said to top-fruit experts. “In northern Europe we will have milder winters, hotter summers, more frequent flooding and more coastal erosion. Southern Europe will have much drier summers and less rainfall.”
These global changes will have great effects on farming and horticulture. “We need to mitigate things ourselves - the status quo is not an option,” said Sir Ben.
“Water could become a major limiting factor on production, and storage of water will become even more important. Pest and disease groups will also change and we will need R&D to tackle this. The foreseeable future will bring above-trend food inflation and higher energy-bound input costs.
“It is not all doom and gloom - but only if we move away from projections and forecasts, and anticipate what action is needed now. Our leaders, both nationally and locally, need to take some hard decisions, and we as fruit growers need to turn this changing world to our advantage,” he added.
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