The current avocado shortage among European retailers could become more common in the future if global production fails to keep up with the astronomical demand for the popular fruit.
That is the view of importers and retailers, who note that while demand for avocados is driving value growth of over 30 per cent in the UK market [Kantar Worldpanel], global production is lagging behind and remains the biggest challenge. Supply is particularly tight between January and April, and this has been heightened recently by hailstorms in key producing region South Africa.
Tesco’s technical manager for salads, including avocados, Mike Corbett, explains: “At the moment there is a shortage in availability and gaps are appearing on shelves at all the retailers. This is down to hail in producing region South Africa – they will have reduced volumes for us this season.
“We are looking at Colombia, Morocco, Kenya and Mozambique for new supply – these origins aren’t on stream with us yet but we are looking at developing them to keep up with demand. On production we potentially have a serious problem on our hands. Suffice to say that we’re looking for options.
“El Niño has had a serious impact on all growing areas around the globe, hail in producing regions of South Africa being just one example. Coupled with strong global growth, the market is under some pressure to maintain supply,” he says.
Corbett agrees that avocado demand is outstripping supply and this isn’t aided by the fact that avocado is a tree crop, so it takes four or five years after planting to yield. Nonetheless he still believes encouraging new entrants into the category is important, albeit alongside sustained increases in production. “We see the volume indicator increasing, albeit value may be steady due to some deflation, which is typical across the produce category. Further growth will come from targeted opportunities for new entrants to improve overall penetration.
“Although it’s also fair to say that trying to boost demand in this scenario may be a case of the more we drive it the more we create our own problems.”
Business unit manager at avocado supplier Worldwide Fruit (WFL), Mark Everett, says climatic challenges are hindering avocado supply. “Heatwaves and then storms in Israel last year, recent droughts and then hailstorms in South Africa and the impact of El Niño in South America has and is affecting production to varying degrees.
“In general the European markets seem to be under most pressure in the January to April supply period. WFL is reacting to this by aiming to work with growers in the best production regions of the world, but also considering risk and aiming to always have alternative supply options should one region be affected by climatic challenges.”
Everett says the avocado market in the UK has grown “rapidly” in the last three years at around 30 per cent a year. “This has continued as we have entered 2016 and shows no signs of slowing in the near future,” he explains, pointing to new usages and formats of avocados as a growth area for the future. “There are plenty of opportunities for growth but ensuring great quality year round is a key driver. Ripe and Ready appears a popular choice. And avocados are now regularly seen in a range of different formats – in sandwiches, salads, guacamole and sushi to name a few,” he says. “Recipes and usage ideas are gaining regular space in a wide range of media formats and this is helping to raise awareness of the versatility of avocados.”
Elsewhere, Tesco is doing its bit to encourage newcomers to try avocados, according to Corbett, by including it under one of its new discount brands – Suntrail Farms. “The avocados in this line are non-Hass varieties and have an ‘ entry-level’ price to encourage new consumers,” he says.
Seeing as you still can’t scroll down Instagram or Twitter without at least one reference to avocados, it can be assumed that demand will continue to grow at least in the short term. Whether global production and supply will keep pace, however, remains to be seen.
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