With an initial mid-year World Trade Organisation (WTO) decision on New Zealand’s apple access to Australia looking likely following a further two-month delay, both industries are considering the implications for the apple trade in Australia.
From the New Zealand perspective, prospective access may ultimately be good for both exporters and for the Australian market.
That market is likely to prove a solid one for New Zealand, according to Alastair Scott of exporter Hannay Douglas, which exports from both countries.
“I do believe that if New Zealand apples came in, the total consumption of apples in Australia would go up because the quality on offer will increase,” Mr Scott told Fruitnet.com.
“It will lead to much better repeat purchasing, which will grow the whole segment.”
Mr Scott said a useful guide for potential effects on the Australian apple industry could be found in the introduction of Australian tomatoes into the New Zealand market in the early 1990s.
“The reshuffling of production that will come with New Zealand apple access will be no different,” he predicted.
“The import of tomatoes into New Zealand meant there were growers who closed their doors, but then the industry reshaped itself and came out in a different light. The less efficient growers exited the market, and you can expect the same here with apples.”
Mr Scott told Fruitnet.com that in the event of Australian access with a quarantine protocol regarded as viable by growers in New Zealand, it would take about two years for the market to re-establish equilibrium.
But Australian industry representatives have labelled the suggestion that New Zealand’s apple quality is so much higher than Australia’s as “fanciful”.
“We accept they’ve got good quality, but so has Australia,” stated Tony Russell, general manager of peak body Apple & Pear Australia Ltd (APAL).
“Australia has a good range of varieties, with new varieties coming through. For New Zealand to think their range is going to increase consumption is fanciful.”
A final ruling on the issue may not be released until next year. An interim WTO report is due to be sent to Australian and New Zealand officials in March, and a final ruling based on that report is not expected until May.
Whichever party that ruling goes against is extremely likely to lodge an appeal, which is likely to take a final, binding ruling into at least 2011.
“The way it’s heading, a final decision is unlikely this year,” Mr Russell told Fruitnet.com. “It’s a bit hard to predict how long an appeal will take – it could take six months or three years.”
“There’s no absolute certainly there’ll be an appeal, but I’ve been advised it’s highly likely from both sides depending on outcome.”
The final ruling of the WTO panel will determine what changes, if any, will be made to the current Australian quarantine protocols for New Zealand apples.
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