Some produce trends build gradually and spread by word of mouth, and to many that is what appears to have happened in the avocado business – the new darling of produce that was reportedly last year’s most Instagrammed food.
But that’s not the case, according Halls managing director Paul Devlin, who says that summer 2014 was a crucial turning point for the global avocado trade. “The summer of 2014 was actually quite a significant turning point for the avocado industry. The Peruvians had shipped quite a high volume of new production into Europe, and the European market, with the volumes from South Africa and Kenya, went over the two million 4kg box mark for the first time. There was a period of 12 weeks where the prices took a bit of a tumble.
“At first people panicked, but actually what that did was make more avocados available, with more opportunity for promotional activity, so more consumers started trying this product, and from October 2014 it led to a period to today where volumes really started to increase.
“It helped to kick start another move onwards. It was a learning exercise for the industry. So I think what people need to be aware of is that every now and again if there is a period of slight oversupply it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Maybe that’s a gateway to other consumers trying the product and then it moves on again.”
Of course, high volumes weren’t the only catalyst for the ongoing phenomenon of avocado growth. Devlin explains: “Avocado is now nearly a must-have item on every menu. The growth has been staggering over the past few years, but I do think it has been a meeting of all of the hard work about health benefits, and the hard work that’s gone into ripening improvements. Over the last three or four years there’s been a lot more responsibility from both the growers and importers to say stop sending this immature fruit just because you’re trying to catch a money market, or a window of opportunity. It’s still not perfect, but it’s got a lot better.”
To put this growth in real terms, Devlin, who has been at the helm of the European arm of South African grower-exporter Halls since 2006, says the world avocado trade has almost doubled in the last six years.
The US is still far and away the largest market – during the most recent Super Bowl weekend the country planned to consume a staggering £139 million worth of avocados, equivalent to 15.7m 4kg boxes, which in turn is the equivalent of the entire South African crop. “What America has done incredibly well over the years is put a real focused plan together about marketing and about consumption growth,” says Devlin, adding that the countries that supply Europe are “absolutely” aiming to replicate this.
“My personal opinion is that demand for avocados will only continue to grow. The consumption per capita in the UK had been fairly flat for the last four or five years at 550-600g, though in the last two years it’s seen a marked increase in sales. I wouldn’t be surprised if that figure was now closer to 800g. Countries like France are about 1.4kg per capita, the leader being Sweden and Denmark at 1.9-2kg. The potential for growth is astronomical, but it all comes back to making sure the fruit is presented in the right format, and we must stop the importation of substandard fruit at different times of the year, which will then be picked up by a consumer at some point.
“In Europe I really think we’re just scratching the surface. I don’t think the European market has fully woken up to avocados. Ukraine and Poland and places like that are totally untapped – the consumption is very low.”
One of the biggest talking points for those in avocados is that consumption is growing at approximately three per cent and production is growing at two per cent, something Devlin says the newly-formed World Avocado Organization will seek to address.
“We’ve got a bit of an imbalance at the moment – we’ve got maybe our highest concentration of volume in our summer months, May to October, and with the winter origins that tails off a little bit – but there is a very hungry European Union at the moment that is looking for avocado,” says Devlin.
By all accounts the avocado industry is a positive place to be at the moment, although there remains much untapped potential – not least in harnessing the impressive power of avocados on social media. Halls launched its own Twitter profile in Berlin this year, but there are surely some intriguing opportunities for online marketing to make the most of the current momentum. Devlin, who celebrates 20 years with the company this October, is understandably optimistic about the future. “I do see periods of slight dips, I think the market is still correcting itself on what is the true demand and what is the true price point, but I don’t think it’s going to deviate too much,” he says. “I don’t see the bubble for avocado bursting.”
Halls factfile
Volume growth: 10 per cent year on year in avocados, driven by “huge growth” in existing customers.
RTE sales: Around a third (30-35 per cent) of Halls avocado sales are in an RTE format.
European operations: Marseille, Paris, Rotterdam and potential for other European and global sites over the next 24 months.
Production: Mainly South Africa, with strong partners in Kenya and Tanzania, and large volumes from Mexico, Peru and Colombia.
Europeanavocado supply
“Mexico is still the global leader in production of avocado, and supplies Europe between October and April,” says Devlin. “They are the natural fill, but they have had quality issues over the last year. Now there are a lot of companies doing it in a better way I think we will see an increase of Mexican fruit. Colombia is a new origin coming on stream with some sizeable production in that same window, Chile is still a big supplier and then closer to home you’ve got Israel and Spain.” The summer period is mainly Peru and South Africa, according to Devlin, with new sources from Kenya and Tanzania. “With Kenyan fruit in particular, it’s much more requested now. Now some of the fruit coming from these parts of the world is on a par with high standard quality,” he adds.
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