Beanstalk Global’s Max MacGillivray says declining bread consumption is leaving an opening for fresh, healthy foods
The potential merger of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of the UK’s most iconic bread brands, marks a significant moment in the evolution of British food retail – and offers a rare, ripe opportunity for the fresh produce sector to seize back valuable ground in the consumer diet.
With talks underway between the owners of these legacy brands, this potential consolidation reflects a sobering reality: traditional bread consumption in the UK has been on a decades-long decline.
From inflation and rising production costs to fierce competition from artisanal and speciality bakeries, and – most significantly – shifting consumer behaviours away from high-carb staples, the baked goods industry is being forced to rethink its future.
The numbers are striking. The UK bakery market is still a £5 billion industry, with 11 million loaves sold each day. But the growth isn’t coming from sliced white bread anymore. Health-conscious consumers are increasingly opting for low-carb or carb-alternative diets, influenced by wellness trends, medical advice, and environmental concerns.
Why fresh produce should pay close attention
This shift creates a strategic sweet spot for the fresh produce sector, both in the UK and globally. As consumers pivot away from traditional bread, what’s filling the nutritional and practical gap? Here’s where fruits, vegetables, legumes, and whole-food plant-based alternatives can shine.
Think salad wraps replacing sandwiches, spiralised courgette taking the place of pasta, or whole mushrooms and aubergine slices standing in for burger buns. With the right messaging and innovation, fresh produce can become not just a supplement, but the centrepiece of the modern plate.
As the bread industry reshapes itself – potentially centralising supply chains, cutting SKUs, and even closing facilities – the shelf space, marketing spend, and consumer attention once dominated by loaves and buns is up for grabs.
Retailers will be looking for high-margin, low-waste, health-positive alternatives to keep customers engaged. That’s a golden opportunity for growers, cooperatives, marketing boards, and produce tech companies to step up with compelling, consumer-ready propositions.
A wake-up call and a call to action
Let’s be clear: this is not a celebration of a sector’s challenges, but a recognition of changing tides. If Hovis and Kingsmill – the stalwarts of Britain’s bread basket – are having to merge in the face of declining consumption, the message for other sectors is simple: adapt, evolve, and step forward.
For fresh produce, this is the moment to tell a bigger story. One that links food and health. One that positions fresh fruit and veg not as side dishes, but as solutions – better for our bodies, better for the planet, and better for the future of food retail.
As the UK bread market contracts and consolidates, fresh produce has a chance to gain plate space, consumer attention, and long-term relevance.
