Last week (w/c 25 May) was a good week for the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the euro, a bad week for the antipodean dollars and a mediocre one for sterling.
Perception and sentiment, especially as they related to the US interest rate outlook and the resolution of Greece's cash flow problem, had more impact on movements than did hard evidence.
The easiest of those to follow was the American interest rate scenario.
From the off, the dollar had the upper hand. The week began with some decent US economic data, including a worthwhile rebound in durable goods orders. Two Federal Reserve chiefs provided anecdotal support, the vice-chairman saying he expects an increase this year and the Richmond Fed president refusing to rule out an increase as soon as this month.
The situation in Athens, Berlin and Brussels remains as impenetrable as ever. At one point the Greek prime minister announced there would be an 'agreement by Sunday', whereupon various Euroland leaders leapt up to shout 'oh no there won't'.
There are so many red lines around the two sides' negotiating positions that it is hard to imagine either of them capitulating in time for Greece to secure the cash it needs to make a €300 million repayment to the IMF on Friday (5 June).
Friday will be a big day on both counts. The monthly US employment report will be seen as an important pointer to the timing of any Fed move to tighten monetary policy.
The ability - or otherwise - of Greece to come up with the IMF money will, at best, kick the can further down the road and, at worst, make life unpleasant for the single currency. With few serious UK economic data on the agenda, the pound's performance will be largely the by-product of price action by the dollar and the euro.
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