Avocados provide a profitable alternative for citrus growers managing changing conditions

Climate change has forced citrus growers in Japan’s Ehime Prefecture to replace their orchards with avocado trees, reflecting a growing trend in Japan.
According to a report from Kyodo News, avocado production in Ehime Prefecture’s capital, Matsuyama, began accelerating in 2009 and over the past decade has jumped more than 12-fold from around 600kg in fiscal 2015 to about 7,300kg in fiscal 2024.
Fuminori Arita, was one citrus grower who made the switch a decade ago. He once farmed “iyokan,” a Japanese citrus variety, before turning to avocados with seedlings he acquired from the city government. He now sells avocados for around ¥5,000/kg (US$32) and said the “joy of success is huge”.
According to Japan’s National Agriculture and Food Research Organisation, suitable areas for cultivating mandarin oranges will gradually shift northward, and many areas that are deemed too warm for citrus fruit will become suitable for avocados.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has introduced a new subsidy designed to accelerate local efforts to promote the cultivation of crops suitable for higher temperatures.
Changes are being made across several Prefectures. A similar shift from citrus to avocados is being explored in Shizuoka. Aomori Prefecture, known for its apples, has been expanding peach production, while Oita Prefecture wants to grow more Shine Muscat table grapes.
A projection by the institute affiliated with the agriculture ministry has also suggested the area suitable for avocado production in Japan will more than double by the middle of the century