Industry leaders warn that China’s growing self-sufficiency in macadamia production and processing could threaten South Africa’s export dominance
Sources in the South African macadamia nut industry have said they are concerned that China will soon be able to meet its own production demands and that this may affect its exports to the country.
Shane Hartman, chief executive of Global Macadamias, warned recently that the South African industry is too reliant on China.
He noted that it was important for South Africans to invest more in nut cracking facilities on its own soil to keep prices stable in future.
“Chinese traders are aware of the fact that South African companies do not have enough of these facilities which means that certain sectors of the South African industry are reliant on nut in the shell exports,” he said.
This, combined with the rise in local production, puts Chinese importers in a strong position when it comes to trade and price negotiations.
South Africa is the biggest macadamia producer in the world, with 95,500 tonnes of in-shell production and only 30,600 tonnes of out of shell production.
China is now the second biggest producer with 75,000 tonnes in-shell and 21,500 tonnes of out of shell production.
Until 2023 China was the biggest importer from South Africa, with nearly 60 per cent of all exports. Vietnam was second with 22 per cent and Hong Kong third with 14 per cent.
Hartman said China has been aggressively investing in its own facilities to crack nuts, so it can also crack the South African in-shell nuts.
“They are therefore also competing directly against us in other markets of the world,” he pointed out. ”This may cause downward pressures on prices worldwide.”
On the other hand, there is rising demand for macadamias which are cracked in half.
Meanwhile, the TopFruit affiliated company TopNut said it has been enjoying ”remarkable momentum” in the industry.
Tree sales from its nursery, Future Tree Nurseries, surpassed expectations, with most of the 2025/26 forecasted inventory sold early in the year.
Expanding its distribution network by licensing to third-party nurseries has broadened access to TopNuts’ flagship macadamia variety, MCT1.
Strong demand and sales of MCT1 reflect growing market confidence in this variety, it said.
To better serve the South African Macadamia industry, TopNut explained that it will soon be introducing five additional macadamia varieties.
Furthermore, the company has obtained the global testing licence for the Turkish-bred walnut variety Potamia Erdin; and has imported tissue culture material of the almond variety Earlybird, and the stonefruit rootstock Magnus, both developed by Sierra Gold Nurseries in California.
