Early-season forecast has macadamia crop reaching 59,080 tonnes, a strong recovery from 2025’s 43,800 tonnes
The 2026 Australian macadamia crop is predicted to reach 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5 per cent moisture, or 63,350 tonnes at 10 per cent moisture, according to a climate-based forecast developed by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries.
The forecast represents a strong recovery on the 2025 crop of 43,800 tonnes in-shell at 3.5 per cent moisture, which followed one of the most challenging seasons on record due to severe weather events and associated impacts across all production regions.
Australian Macadamia Society CEO Clare Hamilton-Bate said early indicators for 2026 were encouraging, with improved growing conditions and a more positive outlook across most regions.
“Flowering was strong and slightly early in many orchards, with good conditions for cross pollination, and nut set has generally been better than first anticipated,” she said. “Favourable weather has supported crop retention, and growers are reporting a marked improvement on last year, although it is not shaping as a standout bumper season.”
Hamilton-Bate said the industry’s gradual recovery is being supported by younger plantings moving into their bearing and full production stages.
“Large plantings of trees from 2019 to 2022 are now contributing more meaningfully to national production,” she said. “In several regions, younger orchards are performing well and showing resilience under variable conditions.”
Production remains sensitive to climate conditions during the upcoming harvest window. The current forecast assumes no major late summer or early autumn cyclone or severe weather events.
“It is still very early days, and there are many variables at play as harvest begins to gather momentum,” Hamilton-Bate said. “While the outlook is cautiously optimistic, the final result will depend on seasonal conditions over the coming months.”
The model-based forecast is an early estimate and will be refined as harvest progresses. A mid-season crop report will be provided in May/June 2026, with the final crop figure to be announced in early December.
