Northwest cherry production is set to increase this season according to initial forecasts released by the industry this week.
The first round crop estimate published by Northwest Cherries (NWC) points to a harvest of 207,460 tonnes, or 20.7m cartons of 20lb for the 2016 harvest, up 7 per cent on last year’s 19.3m-carton crop. The Yakima, Washington-based industry association is also forecasting a strong and early Rainier crop of nearly the same volume as last year’s 1.7m 15lb cartons.
The West Coast is experiencing the warmest and earliest start to the season in decades and sweet cherries, in common with most other crops, are developing ahead of normal.
Some of the earliest production zones expect to begin harvesting between 23 and 25 May and if the weather continues, almost 200,000 cartons could be shipped by the end of May, NWC said.
This is the first of four estimates released by the producer association. Over a series of four rounds of projections during the fruit’s early development, the 22-person team looks at the volume dynamics across all Northwest growing districts and builds an estimation model based on field assessments, historical data, degree days, crop expansion and average processing tonnage to formulate an estimate.
“Obviously we still have a way to go before the first cherry is picked and as always there will be some changes in our numbers as we get closer to June,” NWC said in a press release.
With the potential to harvest 11m cartons in June and a further 9m cartons in July, significant promotional support would be needed in June, NWC said.
“If our warm weather continues at a pace similar to last year, as is predicted we anticipate opportunity for beginning circular ad support for early June rolling into significant volume for the week of 15 June,” the press release said.
“Initial projections suggest to avoid missing sales opportunities, solid promotions should continue right through to the middle of July.”
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