It seems to be either ‘boom or bust’ for the Northwest cherry deal each year – expectations for the season are being downgraded to 10m cartons.
Three seasons ago, rain plus cold and damp spring weather reduced the industry packed volume by 35 per cent from the previous year. In 2009, well-rested cherry orchards pumped out a record-breaking Northwest crop of more than 20m cartons (9.1kg) – despite another cold pre-season growing period. At the mid-point of the 2010 season, it’s now safe to say that this will be another ‘off’ year for volume in the Pacific Northwest.
The industry’s marketing and promotional organisation, Northwest Cherry Growers, issued their initial forecast last May of 16.2m cartons. Thanks to another unusually cold spring – the suspicion is that this is becoming the norm in the Pacific Northwest – estimates have been revised to less than 12m cartons. Some industry observers say that figure may be optimistic.
“The deal is way short this year,” Marc Pflugrath of Columbia Marketing International told Fruitnet.com. “`The industry` may not make it to 10m cartons. The `cold spring` weather just didn’t allow for any kind of normal fruit set.”
“`Production` has been a moving target this year,” agreed Randy Eckert of Yakima Fresh. “We started out thinking we’d get a packout of 15m-16m `cartons`, then it was 13m, now the talk is more like 10m. We’ll see.”
If a 10m carton season turns out to be the case, it would mean that the Northwest cherry industry will have shipped 50 per cent less fruit this year compared to 2009.
“The weather pattern this year has been either ‘feast or famine’,” admitted BJ Thurlby, president of the Northwest Cherry Growers. “We went through the warmest winter in memory this year, followed by one of the coldest-ever springs. And now there is a heat wave on the way. Fortunately, the feedback we’ve been getting from the receivers on quality so far has been excellent. Also, the fruit this year is huge.”
According to Mr Thurlby, the 2010 crop is peaking on 10.5 row and larger.
“Seventy five per cent of the fruit is 10.5 row or larger, which is a record for our industry,” he said. “The average for the previous five years was approximately 62 per cent. There was real concern about whether the fruit would size up, given the cold spring. Thankfully, that hasn’t turned out to be the case.”
Through the week of 5 July, the Northwest cherry industry had packed 5.2m cartons, compared to 7.8m for the same date in 2009. Consensus throughout the industry is that shipments have already peaked and that fruit supplies will remain limited for the remainder of the season until the deal ends sometime in mid-August.
“The most fruit the industry has shipped in one day this season has been 400,000 cartons,” explained Mr Thurlby. “Last year we averaged 400,000 cartons per day for all of July.”
One of the challenges confronting Northwest cherry marketers for the balance of the 2010 season will be how to divide a limited supply of fruit between its domestic and international customers.
“It’s become a real juggling act,” said Mr. Pflugrath, “especially with export markets returning considerably more than domestic at the moment.”
“It’s currently a demand exceeds `available` supply situation,” said Mr Eckert. “That could change, however. You know, it used to be that a few years ago we’d be scared to death `as an industry` of a 10m carton season. Not any longer.”
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