Recent USDA report forecasts China’s 2025/26 apple production at 47mn tonnes
China’s apple production is estimated to decrease in the marketing yeah 2025/26 (July-June) while both imports and exports are expected to maintain an upward trend, according to a new report from the USDA.
Production
The Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual has said China is expected to produce 47mn tonnes in the marketing 2025/26 (July-June), a drop of nearly 5 per cent from the revised estimate for 2024/25.
While each region will have varied outputs, adverse weather, such as drought, strong winds, and high temperatures, have negatively impacted the main production regions including top two producers, Shaanxi and Shandong contributing to the overall reduction.
In addition, apple acreage continues to decline in China driven by labour shortages and farmland policy related to grain security which prohibits the replanting of fruit trees on basic farmland once old trees are removed, the report outlined.
Exports
According to the USDA, China’s apple exports will see continued improvement in 2025/26. South-East Asia remains a key market for China, as consumers tend to prioritise taste and price in their purchasing habits. The country has also gained more market share in Central Asia and Russia.
Imports
Despite a reduction in imports of overall deciduous fruits, the USDA expects China’s imports of apples to steadily increase in MY 2025/36.
New Zealand, as the largest supplier, is primarily driving this growth as it offers a wide range of counter-seasonal varieties and has duty-free access. Australia gained market access in 2025 and is expected to add more import options this season.
