Domestic production area projected to decrease while exports are still on the rise
China’s pear exports are projected to rise again in the marketing year 2025/26 (July-June) as both production and imports decline amid waning demand, according to a new report from the USDA.
Production
The Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual report estimates China’s pear production will reach 20.5mn tonnes in 2025/26, a 2 per cent decrease on the revised estimate for MY 2024/25.
Weather across the region played a significant role in the total production volume. In Anhui, a major producer in southern China, favourable climatic conditions and improved cultivation techniques have contributed to a reported steady increase. While in contrast, Shandong and Shaanxi are reporting loss in production due to summer drought and heat. Meanwhile, China’s largest producer, Hebei, is expected to have a stable crop.
The drop comes amid industry challenges with oversupply and stagnant domestic consumption, which the USDA has projected will cause a gradual contraction in production area.
Imports
Imports, too, have been affected by decreasing demand for western pear varieties. The USDA estimates China will import less than 6,000 tonnes in 2025/26 down from over 8,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
Exports
China has long been the world top supplier of fresh pears, with its exports accounting for more than 30 per cent of the global trade volume in 2024, according to Trade Data Monitor, LLC. In 2025/26, exports are projected to continue rising.
Key export markets include South-East Asia, specifically Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia as well as destinations in the Middle East, Central Asia. Notably, exports to Russia have increased in recent years which could indicate a growing trend.
