First shipments reach UK and Europe as South Africa forecasts 22mn-carton season, up 16 per cent year-on-year
The first avocados of the new South African season have landed in the UK and Europe, and arrivals are expected to significantly increase from next week.
Harvesting is already in full swing in the main production areas, where recent rains have boosted crop prospects.
Subtrop CEO Derek Donkin said market prices are currently good but are expected to decline as volumes increase.
The country is expected to ship around 22mn cartons this year compared with last year’s 19mn cartons, a 16 per cent increase.
South Africa also has a vibrant local market where consumption is growing every year, boosted by promotional campaigns, and ”significant volumes” are set to be sold domestically.
“In 2021, 15mn cartons were exported,” noted Donkin. Since then, export growth has been fairly steady with a slight dip last year (2025) due to a heatwave, widespread hail, and mid-season pressure on the export market.
“The heavy rains in the north-eastern parts of South Africa which caused major disruption and damage in South Africa’s iconic Kruger National Park, and across the border in Mozambique in late December and January, appear not to have had a dramatic effect on the crop.”
As to market conditions expected this year, Donkin said projections show that overall volumes supplied to the European Union and the UK will be higher than in 2025.
“Despite growing demand, growth from Peru and other origins will place pressure on the market,” he confirmed.
”There is a short window opportunity prior to the arrival of large volumes from Peru as well as at the tail end of the Peruvian and South African seasons.”
Much focus will also be on supplying markets in the East this year.
South Africans are still awaiting clarity on the newly announced Free Trade Agreement between South Africa and China.
“From South Africa, The Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Prosperity signed by China and South Africa holds the potential of zero tariffs but the exact terms are still unknown,” Donkin explained.
Elsewhere, the Indian import tariff of 30 per cent is a major limiting factor, given that avocados from Tanzania enter India tariff free.
“Until more favourable tariffs are negotiated, exports to India are likely to remain extremely limited,” he commented. ”That said, consumption in India is growing rapidly, holding huge potential as a major market for South African avocados in the future.”
In Japan, the cold treatment requirements that increase the risk of chilling injury make it risky to export.
“Growth of exports to Japan would be dependent on a viable alternative to cold treatment, such as a systems approach, being accepted by the Japanese authorities,” Donkin said.
He also pointed out that the port of Cape Town is a vital link in the avocado export chain.
“We are certainly concerned about the problems experienced there, as they could occur during the avocado season,” Donkin added. ”Therefore, we support the various initiatives in the broader fruit industry which aim to improve the functioning of Cape Town port.”
