The agricultural organisation said it expects production deficit to lead to a favourable price scenario in the 2026/27 season
Murcia’s Fino lemon harvest will decrease by approximately 30 per cent during the 2026/27 season compared to the previous year, according to initial forecasts from Asaja-Murcia.
The agricultural organisation said the lower fruit availability could lead to a better balance between supply and demand, creating a more favourable environment for producers’ profitability.
The final harvest outcome will depend on factors such as the incidence of pests and diseases, weather conditions, water availability, and the percentage of fruit that meets the size and quality standards required by the markets.
Asaja Murcia noted that the anticipated reduction in Spanish production, coupled with strong European demand and stable consumption, could contribute to maintaining attractive prices for much of the season.
“Last season’s experience demonstrated that a balance between supply and demand improves market performance and strengthens the position of Spanish lemons,” it said.
One of the factors the organisation considers most favourable is the expectation of less competition from Turkey at the start of the Spanish season. Frosts and cold spells in Turkey’s main citrus-growing regions have significantly reduced production capacity in recent seasons, which could limit the presence of Turkish lemons in European markets during September and October, coinciding with the start of the Spanish Fino lemon season.
However, Asaja Murcia insisted that Turkey’s production recovery and exports would need to be closely monitored. It also noted that imports from South Africa and Argentina would be an important factor, since the overlap between the final shipments from the Southern Hemisphere and the start of the Spanish season could directly influence supply volumes and, consequently, the evolution of farmgate prices.
The organisation underscored the high quality, traceability and safety of Murcian lemons, along with their strict compliance with rigorous European production standards.
“We believe that the sector must continue to focus on differentiating Spanish lemons through their excellence and not compete solely on price against production from third countries,” it said.
“Spanish lemons shouldn’t compete solely on price. They must compete on quality, food safety, traceability, and guarantees for the European consumer.”
Despite the positive market outlook, the association warned that significant uncertainties remain, such as the incidence of pests and diseases, weather patterns during the summer and autumn, and the availability of water resources.
The organisation also reiterated calls for farmers to have access to effective phytosanitary tools and for faster approval of new solutions to address the health threats affecting citrus production.
