Avocados set to become the leading tropical fruit export in a decade

Avocados are on track to overtake pineapples to become the most internationally traded tropical fruit within a decade, according to a new report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-35 report cites strong global demand, high yields per hectare, and lucrative export unit prices are the primary drivers of growth, which it predicts will continue at an accelerated pace over the coming decade.

Bananas are excluded from this ranking because the FAO treats them as a separate commodity with their own market analysis and projections

Avocado exports are on course to hit 4.3mn tonnes by 2035, with a corresponding value of US$11bn, positioning it as one of the most commercially valuable fruit products.

Despite growing competition from emerging suppliers such as Colombia and Kenya, Mexico is expected to maintain its leadership in global exports, accounting for 38 per cent of the total volume by 2035. “This performance will be supported by annual production growth of 1.9 per cent over the next decade and continued rising demand in the US – provided that avocados can be shielded from potential import tariffs imposed by that country,” the report states.

Based on current trends, global avocado production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent by 2035 to 16mn tonnes – more than triple the 2015 level. Colombia, Mexico, and Peru will account for a large share of this increase. Consequently, almost 65 per cent of production is expected to be concentrated in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The report notes that exports from Peru – the world’s second-largest exporter – will account for around 25 per cent of global shipments, primarily destined to meet rising demand in the European Union.

It projects that the US and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is driven by the fruit’s purported health benefits, will remain the leading importers, absorbing 41 per cent and 28 per cent respectively of the estimated 4mn tonnes of global imports in 2035.

Imports of the fruit are also expected to rise in the UK, Canada, China, and certain Middle Eastern nations, driven by increasing incomes and/or shifting consumer preferences. Similarly, per capita avocado consumption is projected to rise in many producing countries as incomes grow, particularly in Colombia, Indonesia, and Mexico.

According to the report, global avocado exports grew by approximately 13 per cent in 2025 to 3.3mn tonnes – a sharp contrast to the modest 2 per cent growth recorded in 2024. It notes that while Mexico’s exports were constrained by strong domestic demand, shipments from Peru rose significantly due to expanded production and increased import demand. Together, these two exporters supply more than 60 per cent of the total volume traded on global markets, with shipments destined primarily for the US and the European Union.

Other countries that registered a hike in exports included Chile, the Dominican Republic, and Morocco. Conversely, exports from Kenya and South Africa declined due to logistical bottlenecks resulting from the Red Sea crisis.