Focus should be on supplying the right variety, from the right area, during the right week, to the market and the customer that value it the most
Filling the counter-seasonal window is no longer enough to guarantee the profitability of Chilean table grape exports. Instead, the focus should switch from volume to developing an efficient system that guarantees sustainable returns for producers.
This is the view of Álvaro Aspée, executive director of the Chilean Table Grape Committee, who warns that traditional commercial windows have all but vanished due to the rise of competitors such as Peru, South Africa, and China.
“The counter-season still exists, but it no longer guarantees a profitable business on its own. Competitiveness now depends on delivering the right fruit at the right time, with a cost structure that ensures profitability all the way from the producer to the end consumer,” Aspée said.
In this new landscape, traditional attributes – such as quality, condition, and consistency – are no longer points of differentiation; rather, they have become basic entry requirements, he continued, adding that he believed Chile’s true competitive advantage lies in its long-standing track record, its international presence, and its capacity for public-private collaboration.
“Differentiation cannot be detached from the market. We must be able to combine that execution capability with a much more precise offering: the right variety, produced in the right area, during the right week, and destined for the market and the customer that value it the most,” he noted.
Aspée warned against the mistake of assessing the sector’s success solely by the number of cartons shipped, noting that increasing shipments at the wrong time – or at a high cost – ultimately harms the entire supply chain.
“We could increase the number of boxes while simultaneously destroying value – for instance, if those boxes arrive during a market-saturated week, incur high production costs, or end up being sold on the spot market without yielding good returns. A competitive industry is not necessarily the one that exports the most boxes; rather, it is one where producers and exporters can reinvest and remain in business,” he said.
Aspée claimed that primary metrics should focus on exportable productivity per hectare and packout rates, as well as the cost per packed cartons and the stability of net returns from one season to the next.
Chile’s varietal overhaul
With more than 70 per cent of Chile’s shipments in the current season consisting of protected varieties, the sector has completed an urgent initial phase of replacing obsolete, traditional plant material. However, Aspée stressed that this process is now entering a much more analytical and selective phase.
“A variety that performs exceptionally well in another country will not necessarily deliver the same economic results in Chile. One of the key lessons from this transition is precisely that: while genetics are an extraordinarily important tool, genetics alone do not constitute a business model,” he said.
According to Aspée, a variety must be evaluated comprehensively – taking into account its packout rate, labour requirements, post-harvest shelf life, royalty costs, and how it is actually received by buyers.
Although the US remains the biggest market for Chilean grapes – receiving nearly 32mn of the 58mn cartons exported during the last season – the industry is aiming to mitigate the high concentration of fruit arriving within a short timeframe, thereby avoiding downward pressure on prices and logistical bottlenecks. At the same time, it is looking to send a greater volume to other markets such as Europe, Latin America, and Asia, while making operational adjustments to reduce revenue vulnerabilities in North America.
Regarding phytosanitary matters, Aspée said Chile is seeking to regain the ability to ship products without mandatory quarantine treatments, while simultaneously developing technical alternatives. “In the US, we are working with the SAG [Chile’s Agriculture and Livestock Service] and the USDA to rebuild a robust regulatory alternative to the Systems Approach,” he noted.
Another avenue involves developing alternative treatments, such as ethyl formate (eFUME), which is recognised by the EPA. The critical step now is to complete the phytosanitary validation process with the USDA so that it can become a viable commercial option.
Meanwhile, Aspée pointed out that the approach toward Asia requires a complete rethink. On one hand, he said Chinese consumers have become highly sophisticated, demanding specific standards for flavour, texture, appearance, and Brix levels – expectations that are particularly pronounced across modern retail channels, including e-commerce and social commerce. On the other hand, China is undergoing a massive transformation in its own production capacity, with projected harvests reaching 15mn tonnes and exports hitting 770,000 tonnes, placing it on par with major producing nations like Peru.
“China is no longer just a market whose import demand we monitor. We must now also track how much and when they produce, which varieties they grow, and the volume they export,” Aspée said. “Consequently, China must be integrated into our global supply map, rather than being viewed solely as a destination market.”
A five-year horizon grounded in data
Looking ahead to the next five years for the sector, Aspée argued that the recovery of competitiveness of Chile’s table grape industry should not be measured by a return to shipping 80 or 100mn cartons. Instead, he emphasised the importance of consolidating a smaller – yet financially robust – industry, characterised by planned fruit production and distribution.
He said achieving this goal would hinge on the integration of data between the orchard and the international market. “We face a challenge regarding the speed and quality with which market information reaches the field,” Aspée noted. “Over the next five years, our efforts must focus on this as a strategic foundation – shifting from a historical advantage based on market ‘windows’ to an advantage that is actively built and cultivated.”
