New figure down 20 per cent on the initial forecast and represents a 24 per cent drop compared to 2025/26
Peru’s table grape association, Provid, has released its third forecast for the 2026/27 season. It shows an export crop of 66.1mn (8.2kg) cartons. This is 16 per cent lower than the previous estimate of 78.7mn cartons and almost 20 per cent down on the initial forecast of 82.65mn cartons.
The figure represents a 24 per cent fall on t compared to 2025/26 season.
Provid said the downward adjustment was due to climate-related challenges in the north of the country, where output is now projected to reach just 18.2mn cartons – a 53 per cent contraction on the previous season.
“In this area, rainfall and high humidity in the fields have created challenges for harvesting operations and the condition of the grape clusters,” the association said in a statement.
According to meteorological institute SENAMHI, average minimum temperatures in September were more than 6°C above historical norms, highlighting the unusual climatic conditions in this production zone.
The southern region, by contrast, is expected to reach 48.0mn cartons. This is virtually unchanged on last season but slightly lower than the 50.9mn cartons estimated in the second forecast.
“In this area, the start of the harvest for some varieties is occurring up to four weeks early – a trend that will continue to be monitored as the season progresses. This update was prepared based on information provided by exporters between 22 October and 3 November, as well as the trend in cumulative exports up to week 44,” Provid said.
Provid noted that growers in the north are on high alert due to forecasts of further rain in the coming days, which could affect the quality of the fruit.
