South Africa’s stonefruit sector faces a mixed season, with nectarine volumes surging while plum and peach shipments decline
Overall export volumes of South African stonefruit are expected to decline by 3 per cent compared with the previous season, driven by a variety of trends across the sector.
Nectarine exports are set to increase, apricot volumes are expected to remain relatively stable, while peach and plum volumes are forecast to decrease.
Apricots are expected to come in at 766,000 cartons, 2 per cent more than last year, while peaches are set to reach 2.48mn cartons, a drop of 7 per cent.
The nectarine forecast is for 13.81mn cartons, 9 per cent more than last year, with plums at 14.58mn, down 8 per cent.
Industry body Hortgro noted that the season started earlier than last year, following a relatively dry winter.
Significant rainfall and storm activity in May improved water availability in several key Western Cape production regions.
The first industry forecast indicates that fruit development is progressing noticeably earlier than usual, with early-season fruit expected to ripen about two weeks ahead of a typical year.
“This earlier timing will require close coordination across harvesting, packing and export logistics,” Hortgro outlined.
It explained that the 2025 Tree Census showed mixed trends in South Africa’s planted area over the five-year period from 2020 to 2025.
Fresh apricot hectares remained relatively stable, declining by 4 per cent, while dessert peach hectares fell 22 per cent and plum hectares by 8 per cent.
“By contrast, nectarine hectares rose by 28 per cent over the five-year period, with the largest expansion occurring between 2021 and 2022,” Hortgro said.
”This increase in the planted area has contributed to the recent significant growth in nectarine export volumes.”
Although planted area influences long-term production potential, orchard age, yields, fruit set, weather conditions, and the proportion of fruit meeting export specifications also shape export volumes.
Referring to the logistics and market environment, Hortgro commented that the Port of Cape Town’s performance remains a major concern for the upcoming export season.
“Hortgro and industry stakeholders will closely monitor port operations, vessel schedules, congestion, and shipment delays, as disruptions can affect fruit quality and arrival times,” it said.
“The Middle East is also expected to pose a significant challenge this season, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions to shipping routes and trade flows affecting logistics and create uncertainty for exporters.
“The industry will closely monitor these developments and communicate relevant changes as the season progresses,” it added.
