With El Niño impacting northern zones, all eyes are on Ica to sustain programmes for the end of 2026 and start of 2027
Peruvian table grape exporters will be forced to rely on southern regions to sustain shipments for a longer period this season as El Niño continues to wreak havoc in the north of the country.
According to FreshFruit Peru, the northern region of Piura has been forced to bring its harvest forward, concentrating shipments in October and November. Consequently, the shipments for the year-end and first months of 2027 will depend primarily on fruit from Ica and the southern regions.
Between weeks 38 and 41, Peru shipped 57,700 tonnes of grapes – three times the 18,800 tonnes recorded during the same period in 2025. Almost all of this volume originated from the north.
“Piura, one of the primary grape-producing areas, is also the most exposed to the Coastal El Niño phenomenon, characterised by temperatures well above average and heavy rainfall forecast from November onwards,” the consultancy said.
“Heat stresses the vines and hastens the harvest, but it also reduces fruit size and bunch weight – with the extent of the damage varying by variety. Should the rains arrive, the quality and appearance of any fruit still in the fields will be at risk. For this reason, projections show the northern volume concentrated in October and November, with a sharp decline starting in December.”
Ica, the leading production region, follows a different path. This region lies outside the northern rainfall zone, and the warm weather has brought its harvest forward, meaning its fruit will begin to account for a larger share of shipments earlier on.
Forecasts indicate that the central and southern ports of Callao, Pisco, and Chancay – the exit points for grapes from Ica – will see their share of shipments rise from 38 per cent in November to 82 per cent in December (compared to 54 per cent in December 2025), and they will handle nearly all exports between January and March.
For the season as a whole, their share is expected to increase from 55 per cent to approximately 64 per cent. Thus, even though the volume in December is projected to be 24 per cent lower than in 2025, Ica and the southern region will sustain Peru’s supply from that month through the end of the season.
“The counter-seasonal window (weeks 41 to 13) will be covered primarily from the south, provided that fruit quality is not compromised,” FreshFruit Peru said.
