Industry’s dependence on two closest neighbours comes into sharp focus as USApple’s new-season forecast is unveiled
Canada and Mexico spent almost US$650mn combined on US-grown fresh apples last season, as the US – the world’s second-largest sold more apples abroad and imported fewer, a shift that underlined the industry’s dependence on its closest neighbours.
According to a new report published by the US Apple Association (USApple), that trend pushed the country’s fresh apple trade surplus to nearly 41mn bushels (781,000 tonnes) valued at more than US$1bn, the report revealed.
“Exports are critical to the economic health of the U.S. apple industry, particularly as technology and improved growing practices allow growers to produce more fruit on each acre,” said Chris Gerlach, vice-president of USApple and author of the newly published Industry Outlook 2026 report.
“The growth we saw in Mexico and Canada this year is encouraging, but it also underscores just how important stable trading relationships with those countries are to U.S. growers. At the same time, there is tremendous opportunity to regain market share and open new high-value markets around the world.”
In the report, the group forecast a combined national crop of 263mn bushels (just over 5mn tonnes) for the coming season, down 7 per cent on the figure for 2025/26 and 3 per cent below the five-year production average.
However, USApple said it would not publish a final adjusted national crop estimate for 2026/27, after some regions declined to participate in the industry’s annual adjustment process.
It said its overall forecast was based on the USDA’s latest production estimate as well as its own analysis of production in states not included in the government department’s annual survey.
“The story this season really varies by region,” said Gerlach. “In areas that struggled with drought last year, growing conditions have improved, and we’re hearing encouraging reports about fruit quality.”
He added: “Other regions, particularly parts of the mid-Atlantic, have faced significant weather-related challenges that will affect production. There’s still plenty of growing season ahead, and packouts will ultimately give us a clearer picture, but overall we’re encouraged by the crop we’re seeing across much of the country.”
In previous years, industry representatives have opted to adjust USDA figures based on what they see in their own areas.
This year, however, while some states will apparently continue that tradition, others have said they will not do so.
“The absence of an adjusted number from a state or region should not be interpreted as agreement with or validation of USDA’s estimate,” Gerlach observed.
Altered states
At state level, the USApple crop forecasts include 29mn bushels in New York (552,500 tonnes), over 25mn bushels (476,300 tonnes) in Michigan, 5,8mn bushels (110,500 tonnes) in Pennsylvania, 4mn bushels (76,200 tonnes) in California, and 1.3mn bushels (24,800 tonnes) in Virginia.
Michigan industry representatives are understood to regard the USDA’s estimate as too low, but have reportedly not provided an adjusted figure.
In the meantime, the USDA’s own analysis suggests Washington remains the nation’s top producer with around 176mn bushels (3.35mn tonnes), down 2 per cent from last season.
Its approximate forecasts also put New York in second place with approximately 32mn bushels (609,600 tonnes, down 10 per cent); followed by Michigan with 25mn bushels (476,300 tonnes, down 1 per cent); Pennsylvania with 5mn bushels (95,300 tonnes, down 58 per cent); California with 4.5mn bushels (85,700 tonnes, up 1 per cent); Oregon with 3.8mn bushels (72,400 tonnes, essentially unchanged); and Virginia with 1.8mn bushels (34,300 tonnes, down 48 per cent).
following significant spring freeze damage.
Orchards in both Pennsylvania and Virginia suffered significant freeze damage during the spring.
USApple also estimated that states outside USDA’s top seven would collectively produce approximately 15mn bushels (285,800 tonnes).
In the mix
At variety level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with roughly 16 per cent of US production, followed by Red Delicious (12 per cent), Granny Smith (11 per cent),
Honeycrisp (10 per cent), and Fuji (9 per cent), plus other varieties making up another 9 per cent.
The country’s varietal mix has continued to evolve, Gerlach noted, with production of Granny Smith, Honeycrisp, Cosmic Crisp, and Pink Lady/Cripps Pink increasing over the past five years, while Gala, Red Delicious and Fuji have declined.
“The varietal mix continues to evolve as growers respond to changing consumer preferences and market conditions,” he commented. “It’s one of the most important long-term trends we track because planting decisions made today can shape the market for decades.”
Major shifts
US fresh apple exports rose between July 2025 and June 2026, while imports fell, pushing the country’s fresh apple trade surplus to nearly 41mn bushels (781,000 tonnes), valued at more than US$1bn, the report revealed.
Mexico and Canada remained by far the most important markets. Exports to Mexico were 12 per cent higher at 17.5mn bushels (333,400 tonnes), while exports to Canada rose 20 per cent to 8.3mn bushels (158,100 tonnes). This gave Mexico 39 per cent of all US apple exports and Canada 19 per cent.
The report also examined the financial pressures facing US apple growers, including labour and other input costs that it said had risen considerably over the last few years.
Labour is said to account for approximately 60 per of apple production costs, making recent changes to the H-2A guest worker programme “particularly meaningful” for growers, it noted.
At the same time, farm-gate apple prices have reportedly spent extended periods “near or below” estimated production costs for several major varieties.
“The long-term health of the industry depends on growers’ ability to earn a return that supports the viability of their operations,” said Gerlach. “USApple’s efforts to secure lasting reforms to the H-2A guest worker programme are an important part of that equation – helping address one of growers’ largest production costs and bring expenses and returns into better balance.”
