Italy is the largest producer of stonefruit in Europe and the market has been aware of a likely shortfall in volume since sharp drops in temperature between April 7-9. Some areas, particularly in the earlier production regions in the south, were struck with temperatures as low as ?7°C.

Despite the forewarning, the UK market was caught out by a lack of product at the end of May. Last season, there was an abundance of early Italian fruit available at that time. This year there was none and, as reported in the Journal, the scramble for product saw prices spiral.

As Italian supplies have begun to trickle in, the hope in Italy is that the supply/demand imbalance will guarantee price stability throughout the season for every stage of the chain.

The latest production figures suggest that the 2003 Italian crop will fall just short of 1.3 million tonnes, 30 per cent down on last year for both peaches and nectarines. Only clingstone peaches, predominantly for canning, buck the trend, but even the processing sector is looking at a 20 per cent decline in availability.

While the reduction does come on the back of a high yielding year, it is nevertheless significant. Peaches will account for 649,000t, one of the lowest volume crops ever registered. The shortfall is put into context by a comparison with an average in recent seasons of 870,000t.

While earlier regions were hit worst, the shortfall is in evidence across almost all growing regions. For peaches, Veneto will be 55 per cent down on last year, Emilia Romagna ? which began harvesting this week ? and southern Italy will be 33-34 per cent lower, while Piemonte has escaped the worst and is only expected to be two per cent short of last season?s total.

The nectarine crop tells a similar story, with a forecast 500,000t falling some 120,000t below the four-year average. Veneto?s production is expected to halve, southern Italy is 40 per cent down, Emilia Romagna drops 30 per cent and Piemonte 17 per cent.

Despite the volume losses, quality is widely reported to be good, with excellent internal condition and optimum sugar levels at harvest. The lack of volume could be compensated for in part by a preponderance of fruit of the right counts for the market.

One Italian source says that European markets have reacted badly to high prices last week, and are struggling to clear the volumes of fruit available to them.

?The difficult thing is to find the right balance between the quantities and the retail price,? he says.

?Mainly because of the recent warm weather, good quantities of peaches were harvested in southern Italy but the main season there is already over. For this reason, growers/shippers are not willing to bring down the prices drastically as there is no pressure from the growing side.

?Nectarines are now starting in the south (Metaponto in Puglie and Calabria) and the UK will begin to see small volumes next week. But the early varieties ? such as Armking ? are never really exciting quality-wise.?

In the UK, importers are counting the cost of the late start already. ?The southern crop is way behind in volumes,? says Frank Guest, import director at Poupart, which supplies its fruit to the UK non-supermarket business. ?I loaded my first truck in the last week of May last year and this season the first lorry has only arrived this week. That is a significant delay and from our point of view, we will not make up that shortfall. We are already 12 trucks behind and even if prices had been double or even treble those of last year, we cannot compensate for the volumes lost.?

The southern regions of Italy traditionally cover the first two to three weeks of the stonefruit export campaign. It was the provinces of Calabria, Campania and Puglia that suffered from a cold snap during flowering that vastly reduced early volume expectations.

Picking has just begun in Vasto and Emilia Romagna, the regions to which attention switches from this point of the season on. The overlap between northern and southern fruit, exaggerated a little in seasons such as this, will not cause any problems, says Guest. ?It blends in quite nicely. There is a mini heat wave out in Italy at the moment ? with temperatures up in the high 30s last weekend. But that will not make any difference to availability.

?In terms of the UK market, prices have been much higher and they will inevitably fall as the season moves forward. But there is no oversupply from Spain or France and subject to there being a decent UK summer I can?t see prices dropping as low as they did last year.? The exchange rate is a significant factor, with sterling buying only around ?1.40 as opposed to ?1.55 at the same point of 2002. ?That?s a 10 per cent differential,? says Guest. ?And somewhere there will have to be a balance struck between us paying 10 per cent more for the fruit and the Italian growers being prepared to accept slightly less for their fruit.

?The northern and eastern European markets are large consumers of Italian stone fruit, and have not seen the same currency variations. There is a shortfall in the Greek peach supply and Germany is the major market for Greek fruit. They will need to get that fruit from somewhere else and that could have a knock-on effect on availability for the UK.?

The weather patterns have ensured that there will inevitably be times of the season when supply hits peaks and troughs. But the late start will not automatically lead to a late finish. Guest says: ?The season has had a disappointing start because it is later, but there is no indication that it will end later. I expect a similar date of closure.

?Growers are in the driving seat at the moment ? they may not be in a few weeks. Higher prices in the UK may limit demand and therefore also limit the effect of any supply gaps there may be. As long as the weather remains good in the UK, I think supply will be sufficient to meet demand ? so there should be no dramas.?

There is a general, but gradual move towards nectarines in Italy. ?When peach trees are reaching the grubbing stage, Italian growers are far more likely to mix things now ? if say 20 trees were grubbed, you would see maybe five white flesh, 10 nectarine and five yellow flesh trees replacing them,? says Guest.

?If you gave me a choice between yellow and white flesh I would take white every time, because of the excellent flavour, but I don?t think there is a big enough market in the UK yet to base a white flesh business on. They are a different animal to grow and handle and to market them successfully in the UK, shelf life and, from the grower?s side, prices would need to be guaranteed. There is such a big Italian domestic market for the varieties, taking distribution out of the equation and extending shelf life, that there is no real need to look at exporting yet. I do source some when requested by my customers, but there are only a handful who ask.?

Whatever the vagaries of this season, Guest believes the Italians have proved their value to the UK market and recognise its value to them. He concludes: ?I think generally Italian growers are happy with the way the UK market has developed for them. They have seen that their ability to produce the right fruit, at the right price, and to reliable programmes, is appreciated. The Italians have the job down to a fine, automated art and customers keep coming back for more.?

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