Can varietal diversity shore up profitability of Peruvian exports?

Better planning and varietal diversification are essential tools to protect the long-term profitability of Peruvian fruit exports in the face of unprecedented growth and increasingly volatile international prices. So says Fresh Fruit Peru in a new analysis of the current global trade landscape.

“After a cycle of exceptionally high prices between 2023 and early 2025, the global market has reacted with a considerable increase in supply, with countries such as Mexico, South Africa, Chile, and several West African nations – as well as Peru – significantly expanding their export volumes,” Fresh Fruit Peru said.

“However, this is beginning to generate the need for more sophisticated commercial planning and adequate information on the plantations of the main national agricultural exporters if the downward pressure on prices at the time of marketing is to be reduced. This situation is reflected in the FAO Food Price Index, which in August 2025 remained 18.8 per cent below its peak in March 2022.”

Peruvian agricultural exports grew 19 per cent to the end of August 2025 compared to the year-earlier period. According to Fresh Fruit Peru, varietal diversification constitutes a sophisticated risk management tool for exporters. “By simultaneously cultivating premium and standard varieties, as well as early, mid-, and late ripening cycles, exporters are able to decouple their income from the fluctuations inherent in commodity markets,” the consultants said.

It is calling for more efficient segmentation, with a focus on premium varieties with superior attributes targeted at high-value market niches where demand is less price-sensitive and standard varieties to meet mass demand. In this way, even when generic product prices fall due to oversupply, the premium segment can maintain stable margins and act as an anchor for profitability.

The consultants also highlighted the need to introduce varieties with staggered ripening cycles to extend the commercial window and avoid the concentration of the entire harvest at peak production times, when market saturation precipitates a price collapse.

Furthermore, by distributing supply throughout the year, pressure on market absorption capacity is reduced, and better prices are captured during periods of less global competition.

Finally, and no less importantly, Fresh Fruit Peru said different varieties function as independent products and generate independent demand, which reduces the pressure that would be placed on a single product.

“For example, there are mandarin varieties that are in high demand in the US and others that are in high demand in Japan. Both are mandarins, but they are different varieties that are widely accepted in the US but not in Japan, and vice versa, it said.

Peruvian blueberries show how this strategy has helped Peru consolidate its global leadership position. In 2017, just two varieties accounted for the vast majority of shipments, while today, nine varieties make up 80 per cent of exports.

“This change has allowed Peru to offer a range of options with distinct attributes and commercial opportunities that cater to different countries and consumers according to their specific tastes,” the consultants said.

Although the 2025/26 season is facing a sharp drop in prices – in August, the average fell 41 per cent to US$5.95 per kilo – diversification has served as a key buffer. Licensed and premium varieties, such as OZblu Mágica, have fetched prices more than 20 per cent higher than the average for standard varieties.

“This genetic differentiation not only protects margins but also responds to the demand of sophisticated markets such as those in Asia, which demand larger-sized and higher-quality berries. Thus, the challenge for the blueberry sector is no longer just to produce more, but to sell better, balancing volume and value to ensure sustainable growth,” Fresh Fruit Peru said.

It pointed out that Peruvian table grapes have gone through a similar successful transition. In the last decade, the industry shifted from relying on traditional seeded varieties like Red Globe to a portfolio dominated by patented seedless varieties like Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp.

“Varietal diversity has meant that, in 2023, Sweet Globe overtook Red Globe for the first time to become the most exported variety, and currently, protected varieties represent nearly 75 per cent of total volume. This genetic transformation has allowed the portfolio to be tailored according to destination,” it said.

Red Globe maintains a niche in certain Asian markets, while seedless varieties, with better texture and post-harvest life, lead in Europe and the US. This flexibility in segmentation is a tool that strengthens the negotiating position and ensures stable trade relationships, as it offsets the fall in the price of one variety with the profits of another.

On the other hand, Fresh Fruit Peru said the case of avocado highlights the high vulnerability of limited diversification. Peruvian exports are almost entirely concentrated on Hass avocados, with a defined harvest window that restricts commercial options. This dependence has left the sector exposed to a drastic price drop in the face of increased global supply and the saturation of key markets.

In the first half of 2025, a 35 per cent increase in Peruvian avocado exports triggered a price war, particularly in Europe. In August, average prices plummeted 33 per cent to US$1.71 per kilo, and despite a 56 per cent increase in volume, the value of exports grew by just 5 per cent in that year.

“This profitability crisis is affecting more than 22,000 producers, many of them small and vulnerable to volatility. The situation demonstrates that a growth model based solely on expanding the acreage of a single variety is showing signs of exhaustion and urgently requires diversification into other crops and an extension of the trading window to prevent a repeat of these crises,” Fresh Fruit Peru said.

The report concluded: “Implementing a varietal diversification strategy in Peru has very clear advantages, but also presents several significant challenges. The main barrier is access to genetics, which often entails paying expensive licenses and complying with exclusivity contracts, which is prohibitive for smaller-scale producers.

“Added to this is the conversion of fields, which requires significant investments and a period of unproductivity while the new plants reach maturity. Robust public-private collaboration is also key to streamlining phytosanitary protocols that allow for the import and testing of new varieties in Peru, as is currently being explored with cherries and raspberries.

“To strengthen the sector’s competitiveness, it is imperative that public and private actors deepen their commitment to innovation. It is recommended to promote research, development, and innovation (R&D&I), with an emphasis on the private sector, focused on the adaptation of new varieties and the creation of our own genetics.

“It is also essential to use market intelligence to anticipate consumer trends and monitor the harvests of competing countries, proactively adjusting export strategies. It is also important to foster more efficient segmentation, clearly differentiating between premium and standard fruit, and prioritizing direct marketing channels with large international chains.

“The overwhelming global success of our cuisine year after year, for example, can be a great promoter of the Peru brand in premium-quality products that can complement our line of superfoods. What began as a dream of putting arid lands in Peru into production has now become a reality. Now comes the second important step: positioning Peru as a global leader that will feed the world in the coming decades with quality Peru-branded products and the varieties that international consumers demand.”