The new administration must act as rising costs, unfavourable exchange rates and tariffs threaten the profitability of the country’s agri-exports
I’m going to go out on a limb and say it: Colombia’s agricultural sector is going through what may well be one of the most critical moments of this century.
For two years, I have been raising the alarm, warning that conditions were deteriorating. Today, unfortunately, a perfect storm has hit.
On the revenue side: The exchange rate shifted from levels near COP4,400 to the US dollar in early 2025 to around COP3,180 today. For those of us who export, this represents a reduction of nearly 30 per cent in the pesos received for every dollar of sales.
In the case of Tahiti limes, this currency appreciation coincides with a sustained drop in international prices. We are selling for less and receiving far fewer pesos.
Furthermore, for several months in 2025, various Colombian products faced an additional 10 per cent tariff to enter the US. Although relief was subsequently granted for some agricultural products, flowers remained affected and currently face an additional 12.5 per cent tariff.
On the cost side, the situation is equally complex. The 23 per cent increase in the minimum wage in 2026 dealt a severe blow to the sector. At the same time, the working week was reduced to 42 hours, resulting in fewer hours worked per week and a higher cost per labour hour.
Advocating for better wages and working conditions is necessary. However, we must also acknowledge a reality: in the agricultural sector – where labour can account for around 50 per cent of production costs – increases of this magnitude, without corresponding gains in productivity, prices, or exchange rates, can render many businesses unviable.
And then there is the climate to factor in. After a very rainy 2025 – which impacted the productivity and quality of numerous crops – we are now facing an El Niño phenomenon that could rank among the most intense recorded since 1950. Meteorological institute Ideam estimates an 81 per cent probability that it will reach “very strong” intensity during the final months of 2026.
Lower revenues. Higher costs. Tariffs. Lower productivity. Increased climate risks. It is a perfect storm.
And this threatens more than just agricultural business owners; it threatens rural employment and the stability of thousands of families.
To put this in perspective: crops such as limes and avocados can generate approximately one direct job for every three hectares; bananas, nearly one per hectare; and flowers, up to 15 jobs per hectare.
When an agricultural business closes, it is not merely a commercial entity that disappears. Rural jobs, expertise, investment, social fabric, and opportunities are lost in regions where alternatives are often non-existent.
That is why we urgently need to launch a national conversation – not only to find an immediate short-term solution but also to address the issue through long-term structural measures.
We issue an urgent call to the new administration – president Abelardo De La Espriella and minister Dangong – to attend to this sector promptly.
Juan Pablo Duque is founder and CEO of Equilibria
