New RaboResearch report shows new acreage and more diversified supply base is driving export growth
A new report from RaboResearch shows that the global avocado market is now worth more than US$20bn, as increased production and new supply countries continue to drive export growth.
Amid this rise of new suppliers, the report notes that seasonal oversupply in certain markets is a concern that will require continued demand creation and marketing strategies.
The global avocado market continues to grow
“The total avocado market value, in terms of consumer prices, is estimated at around US$20.5bn, with three main regions representing 88 per cent of the market value: Latin America, North America, and Europe,” said David Magaña, senior horticulture analyst for RaboResearch.
He predicts that global avocado exports will continue to expand in the next few seasons, surpassing 3mn tonnes by 2026/27, a significant increase from 1mn tonnes 2012/13. “This massive growth is the result of increasing exports from the current top three avocado exporters, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, accounting for about two-thirds of global exports,” he said.
Another factor is the continued diversification of growing regions and the appearance of new exporting countries attracted by high margins, although pressure on margins is growing.
US import demand remains strong
The US, the world’s largest avocado importer, continued to show strong demand in 2024/25. Prices reached record highs given lower shipments from Mexico, where heat and drought limited fruit development. The 2025/26 season is expected to see more normal volumes from Mexico, while California is harvesting its largest crop since 2020. RaboResearch notes that potential trade policy changes may limit the success of US efforts to diversify sourcing origins in Latin America.
Demand growth potential in South America
South American exports could exceed 1mn tonnes in 2025/26, led by Peru and followed by Colombia and Chile. The three countries are increasing their production and exports, but only Chile has an important domestic market. RaboResearch believes other countries in South America provide opportunities for demand growth.
Marketing efforts are needed to absorb high volumes in Europe
The European market continues to present strong demand, which has sustained high prices throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025. However, large volumes from Peru are affecting wholesale prices in Europe in the 2025 summer period. Marketing efforts need to be ramped up to absorb peak volumes, especially because both Peru and African countries are strongly expanding exports to Europe.
Australian production growth expected
Following a dip in production during 2024/25, Australian avocado production is expected to recover in the 2025/26 season. In the longer term, RaboResearch expects growth in planted area to level off. In New Zealand meanwhile, following a recovery in production in 2024, further growth is expected in avocado production in 2025.
David Magaña - david.magana@rabobank.com - +1 559 4477955
Cindy van Rijswick - cindy.rijswick@rabobank.com - +31 6 12446402
Gonzalo Salinas - gonzalo.salinas@rabobank.com
