Florida’s orange crop expected to be 23 per cent smaller in 2026/27, dragging overall production down, says new report
The first official forecast of the 2026/27 US citrus season points to lower orange production nationwide, although grapefruit, lemon and mandarin volumes are expected to increase, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, part of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
With overall production expected to show mixed results, the sharp decline in Florida’s orange crop is expected to outweigh increases in California and Texas, the report said.
The forecast projects US orange production of 61.7mn boxes, down 3 per cent from the 63.54mn boxes produced in 2025/26.
Florida’s orange production is anticipated to be 23 per cent lower at 10mn boxes, compared with 12.95mn boxes last season.
Non-Valencia orange production is expected to decline 37 per cent to 3mn boxes, while Valencia volumes are projected to decrease 14 per cent to 7mn boxes.
The report attributed the lower forecasts to reduced bearing tree numbers, smaller fruit, lower fruit counts, and adverse weather.
The industry is still recovering from poor conditions during previous seasons – including hurricanes and freezing conditions – as well as contending with a continued challenge posed by citrus greening disease.
Florida’s non-Valencia bearing tree population has declined 24 per cent, while Valencia-bearing trees are down 12 per cent.
California’s orange production, meanwhile, is predicted to be 2 per cent higher at 50.5mn boxes – including 42mn boxes of non-Valencia varieties and 8.5mn boxes of Valencias. In Texas, production is set to rise 10 per cent to 1.2mn boxes.
Other citrus types
As for grapefruit production, this is projected to increase 8 per cent to 8.5mn boxes, driven by higher volumes in California and Texas.
California’s grapefruit crop (including pomelos) is forecast at 4.8mn boxes, up 9 per cent, while Texas production is expected to rise 14 per cent to 2.4mn boxes.
Florida grapefruit production is projected to decline 4 per cent to 1.3mn boxes, comprising 1.2mn boxes of red grapefruit and 100,000 boxes of white grapefruit.
US lemon production is forecast to increase 8 per cent to 29.8mn boxes. In California, output is due to rise to 28mn boxes, while Arizona should turn out 850,000 boxes and Florida 950,000 boxes.
Tangerine and mandarin production (including tangelos) is projected to increase 3 per cent across the US to 32.45mn boxes.
California’s crop is forecast to reach 32mn boxes, compared with 31mn boxes last season, while Florida production is expected to decline 2 per cent to 450,000 boxes.
The USDA’s next citrus production forecast is scheduled for release in mid-January, followed by updates in April and July.
