Egypt bucks trend with double-digit growth as output in most major producing countries contracts
The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its preliminary annual Northern Hemisphere citrus forecast for 2025/26. The forecast, based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the US and Portugal, shows that citrus production is expected to reach almost 27.4mn tonnes, a decrease of 1.51 per cent compared to 2024/25 and 5.13 per cent down on the average of the previous four seasons.
Exports are also expected to decline by 0.81 per cent compared to last season and 8.25 per cent on the four-year average, respectively.
By country, the EU’s largest producer Spain, is projected to see a 9.72 per cent contraction compared to last season, with a volume of 5.59mn tonnes. This is 11.20 per cent down on the four-year average. Italy foresees a decrease in its volumes (-6.12 per cent to 3mn tonnes), with Greece also reducing its production by 1.58 per cent to 1.23mn tonnes. Portugal, by contrast, expects output to increase by 14.20 per cent to 380,000 tonnes.
Looking at the main non-EU countries in the Mediterranean, Egypt expects a 13.85 per cent growth, taking it to 4.95mn tonnes. Turkey, on the other hand, foresees a stark decline compared to both last year, with volumes dropping 10.83 per cent to 4.42mn tonnes. This is 15.31 per cent below the four-year average.
In Morocco, production should remain stable at 2.09mnn tonnes. Regarding the smaller non-EU Mediterranean producers, Israel reports the largest increase (+24.12 per cent to 530,000 tonnes), while the estimates for Tunisia are 3 per cent lower than last season at 370,000 tonnes.
Although the release of the yearly forecast by the USDA has been delayed due to the government shutdown, early estimates from California and Florida point to a 4.53 per cent increase in production, bringing the American crop to 4.85mn tonnes, pending further revisions.
Looking at the production by category, oranges (representing 51 per cent of the total volume) are set to decrease by 2.16 per cent to 13.86mn tonnes. Soft citrus production should increase by 5.91 per cent to 8.51mn tonnes, while lemons are expected to experience a 12.38 per cent reduction, totalling 4.23mn tonnes. Finally, grapefruit production is predicted to increase by 1.17 per cent to 790,000 tonnes.
The WCO said it would release the 2026 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere in April 2026.
