More balanced supply and high international prices augur well for the sector
Brazil’s citrus industry is on course to bounce back after enduring one of its most challenging seasons in decades. According to the annual report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2025/26 orange harvest is projected to reach 13.5mn tonnes – a 3.7 per cent increase over previous forecasts, driven mainly by improved weather conditions in São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro.
While still considerably short of the record output seen in previous years, the production forecast – coupled with the expectation that orange juice prices will remain high in international markets due to limited stocks after several years of tight supply – heralds a more stable outlook for the industry.
The improved picture follows an extremely difficult 2024/25 season, marked by severe drought and high temperatures that cut output to levels not seen since 1988. However, the arrival of more regular rainfall in late 2024 and early 2025 has allowed the trees to recover, improving fruit size and yield per hectare.
According to the report, an estimated 10.54mn tonnes of oranges will be used for juice production, an increase compared to the previous season. Orange juice production (from concentrate) is projected to reach 1.03mn tonnes (equivalent to 65 Brix), representing a 1.86 per cent year-on-year increase.
Despite the recovery in harvest volume, the report warns that the incidence of HLB remains the main structural threat to the sector. The increase in infected trees in the main producing regions continues to put pressure on management costs and limit long-term growth potential.
In terms of exports, the report said Brazil will consolidate its position as the dominant exporter of orange juice globally, covering approximately three-quarters of world demand. The European Union remains the largest buyer, followed by the US, which has increased its reliance on Brazilian juice in recent years due to the historic drop in production in Florida.
