Projections for harvest in São Paulo and Minas Gerais now stand at 292.6mn cartons
Brazilian association Fundecitrus has pegged the 2025/26 orange harvest in the citrus belt of São Paulo and the Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro region at 292.60mn boxes of 40.8kg) cartons, 0.7 per cent less than in its previous forecast.
It said the reduction is due to the decrease in the average size of late-season Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal orange varieties, resulting from less rainfall than the historical average between May of last year and January 2026 in the producing regions.
Despite the reduction, Brazil’s main orange-producing region and leading exporter of orange juice is expected to see a significant recovery compared to last year’s harvest, which came in at 230.87mn cartons, the second lowest volume in the last 37 years, due to adverse weather conditions and the spread of citrus greening disease.
According to Fundecitrus, by mid-January, 87 per cent of the harvest had been collected, with an average weight of 153g per fruit –1g below the previous projection.
The projection for the premature fruit drop rate was maintained at 23 per cent. This is the highest level recorded over 11 harvests and is associated with the increased severity of citrus greening.
“When analysed by sector, the fruit drop rate follows the incidence and severity of citrus greening, being more intense in the south, central and southwest sectors and less intense in the northwest and, mainly, north sectors,” Fundecitrus said.
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures traded in New York were up 2.7 per cent as of 10 February, at US$1.73/lb. This is well below the record of over US$5/lb registered in 2024.
