Fundecitrus anticipates a 13 per cent drop in production for 2026/27
Brazil’s orange crop is expected to weigh in at 255.2mn (40.8kg) cartons for 2026/27, a drop of 12.9 per cent on the previous season and 14.7 per cent decline on the average for the last decade. The forecast, released by Fundecitrus on 8 May, is for the São Paulo Citrus Belt and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais region.
Fundecitrus said the shortfall is due to the natural year-to-year fluctuation in orchard productivity, a reduction in the number of fruits per tree and an increase in the rate of premature fruit drop. “Those negative impacts outweigh the positive effects of heavier fruit weights and an expanded number of productive trees,” it stated.
Average estimated productivity stands at 697 cartons per hectare, a 13.8 per cent decline from the previous season, with yields down across a every variety.
Juliano Ayres, executive director of Fundecitrus, noted: “This is a crop season impacted by climatic variability and increased pressure from greening disease, with repercussions on fruit set, crop load and fruit drop rates”.
The most recent disease survey conducted by the association in September 2025 suggests that greening had affected 47.6 per cent of orange trees within the Citrus Belt.
In addition to the lower number of fruits per tree, the rate of premature fruit drop — projected at 23.7% — and a total fruit loss rate of 31.3% also contributed to the productivity decline.
Fundecitrus’s survey is based on analysis of 2,560 trees, distributed across various regions, varieties and age groups.
The association said it would continue to monitor production and could revise its estimate later in the season, “particularly in light of fruit drop rates and the final size of the oranges”.
