Maria Luiza Castro, manager of El Ciruelo Brazil, discusses the likely impact of Trump’s new tariff regime on the Brazilian table grape industry
What impact is Trump’s new tariff on Brazilian agricultural products expected to have on Brazilian grape exports?
Maria Luiza Castro: In the case of our Brazilian table grapes, this new measure does not pose a significant risk. Less than a third of our total exported production is destined for the US market, and in fact, 75 per cent of our exports already go to various European countries, not just Spain.
Therefore, the potential impact of this measure on our production is fully manageable and can be absorbed without entering a price war. However, producers with a high dependence on the US market could be seriously affected, not because the market cannot absorb their production, but because their varieties are specifically adapted to the preferences of consumers in that country.
It should be noted that grapes are also one of the products least affected by this regulation, unlike other crops – such as mangoes – that are more exposed, since the total volume of grapes exported from Brazil is relatively small compared to other products.
Is it likely that more produce will be diverted to other markets, such as Europe, as a result? Or is it more likely that it will be absorbed in the domestic market?
MLC: In our case, we expect to maintain the same trend as previous years, distributing sales between Europe and Brazil. The Brazilian domestic market is strong and boasts high fruit consumption among the local population, which could help balance the excess supply without the need to open new markets.
I understand that Peru’s campaign will start later, so there may be a gap in the European market that Brazil can take advantage of. Is this correct?
MLC: The Peruvian and Brazilian markets are complementary. If Peru delays its production, Brazil could take advantage of this opportunity to extend its sales window during the Christmas months. Furthermore, demand during this period typically increases considerably due to the holidays, which can be beneficial for both countries.
What news do you have regarding the development of your Brazilian grape programme?
MLC: For years, our main investments have focused on the agricultural sector, with the primary objective of improving the product as a starting point and key factor in our development. Over the past five years, we have worked intensively on varietal conversion, seeking out those varieties that best adapt to Brazil’s specific climatic conditions and, at the same time, respond to market and consumer demands.
However, in the last two years, we have focused a large part of our investment on the post-harvest process, especially in our warehouses and cold storage facilities. In the last year alone, we have tripled our cold storage capacity and expanded our processing facilities, with the goal of optimising yields, reducing lead times, and improving customer service.
Looking ahead to next year, we plan to build a new logistics centre to concentrate all our third-party marketing operations. This will allow us to centralise processes, continue reducing costs, and, at the same time, improve product quality and extend its post-harvest shelf-life, thus offering a more efficient and competitive service to our customers.
Do you plan to ship any Brazilian grapes to China now that the market has opened?
MLC: In our case, it is still too early to talk about shipping to China, as Europe remains our main and most established natural market. Although this market opened last year, we haven’t had the need to resort to it until now, as our exports are highly diversified, which allows us to face these types of situations more solidly. But yes, it could be a future opportunity; it’s always good to have new markets.
